2023 · Week 9

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

27·6

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 48°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

LAC -3

Total

41

Model margin

+3.0est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

6.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapJets
  • -0.070EPA / play-0.230
  • 41.4%Success rate35.6%
  • +0.018EPA / dropback-0.250
  • -0.242EPA / rush-0.191
  • 6.9%Explosive rate6.2%
  • -1.84CPOE-5.18
  • 38.3%Third-down rate25.5%
  • 54.8%Red-zone TD rate39.2%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.01
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 7–5 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. NYJ are 8-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W11NYJ @ LAC28–34CHARGERS
2017 · W16LAC @ NYJ14–7CHARGERS
2014 · W5NYJ @ SD0–31CHARGERS
2012 · W16SD @ NYJ27–17CHARGERS
2011 · W7SD @ NYJ21–27NYJ
2009 · playoffsNYJ @ SD17–14NYJ
2008 · W3NYJ @ SD29–48CHARGERS
2005 · W9SD @ NYJ31–26CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–NYJ
LACQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
NYJQ1 14:0634Opp touchdown7–0
NYJQ1 13:15623Turnover7–0
LACQ1 10:55311Punt7–0
NYJQ1 9:17622Turnover7–0
LACQ1 6:27850Touchdown14–0
NYJQ1 2:4543Punt14–0
LACQ1 0:40524Punt14–0
NYJQ2 12:5337Punt14–0
LACQ2 10:343-10Punt14–0
NYJQ2 9:20731Field goal14–3
LACQ2 5:574-2Punt14–3
NYJQ2 4:34610Punt14–3
LACQ2 1:53612Punt14–3
NYJQ2 0:4734Punt14–3
LACQ2 0:17221Field goal17–3
NYJQ3 15:00847Field goal17–6
LACQ3 9:5237Punt17–6
NYJQ3 8:241125Punt17–6
LACQ3 2:351568Field goal20–6
NYJQ4 9:1865Punt20–6
LACQ4 6:4936Punt20–6
NYJQ4 4:36321Turnover26–6
LACQ4 3:2812Touchdown27–6
NYJQ4 3:221568Turnover on downs27–6
LACQ4 0:2800End of half27–6

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert16/3013600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler14473.42
Joshua Kelley3186.00
Justin Herbert3175.70
Quentin Johnston122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen89770
Austin Ekeler27230
Gerald Everett22180
Quentin Johnston23140
Joshua Kelley1140
Donald Parham0200
Jalen Guyton0200
Stone Smartt0100
Derius Davis1100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson33/4926300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall16503.10
Dalvin Cook273.50
Zach Wilson273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson713800
Tyler Conklin66660
Xavier Gipson22320
Michael Carter66240
Allen Lazard26180
C.J. Uzomah25110
Breece Hall44100
Nick Bawden1170
Malik Taylor1270
Jeremy Ruckert1170
Dalvin Cook1210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

6.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

40.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.02