Closing spread
LAC -3
Total
41
Model margin
+3.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play-0.230
- 41.4%Success rate35.6%
- +0.018EPA / dropback-0.250
- -0.242EPA / rush-0.191
- 6.9%Explosive rate6.2%
- -1.84CPOE-5.18
- 38.3%Third-down rate25.5%
- 54.8%Red-zone TD rate39.2%
- 1.75Points / drive1.01
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 7–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. NYJ are 8-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 16/30 | 136 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Joshua Kelley | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 8 | 9 | 77 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Stone Smartt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 33/49 | 263 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 16 | 50 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Zach Wilson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 7 | 13 | 80 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 6 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Xavier Gipson | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 6 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 4 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Nick Bawden | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Malik Taylor | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
6.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
40.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.02