Closing spread
SD -1
Total
43
Model margin
+2.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 7–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. NYJ are 8-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 18/33 | 173 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 20 | 112 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Joe McKnight | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Keller | 4 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 4 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 4 | 8 | 25 | 3 |
| Santonio Holmes | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Matthew Mulligan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+2.08
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.