Closing spread
SD -1
Total
43
Model margin
+2.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutLuis CastilloDETibia· DNP
- QuestionableAntonio GatesTEFoot· Full
- ProbableJacob HesterRBFoot· Limited
- ProbableJacques CesaireDEKnee· Full
- ProbableMarcus GilchristCBKnee· Full
- ProbableMike TolbertRBConcussion· Full
- ProbableVincent JacksonWRHamstring· Full
Jets
- OutIsaiah TrufantCBHamstring· DNP
- OutLogan PayneWRWrist· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableMike DevitoDTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableNick MangoldCAnkle· Limited
- ProbableAntonio CromartieCBGroin· Full
- ProbableDonald StricklandCBConcussion· Full
- ProbableJoe McKnightRBKnee· Full
- ProbableLaDainian TomlinsonRBNot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableMarcus DixonDTKnee· Full
- ProbableMarquice ColeCBHamstring· Full
- ProbableMuhammad WilkersonDEShoulder· Full
- ProbableRopati PitoituaDEKnee· Full
- ProbableTanner PurdumLSBack· Full
Win probability
- Jets
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 7–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. NYJ are 8-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 17 | Opp touchdown | 7–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 13:11 | 8 | 59 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q1 8:25 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 7–3 |
| NYJ | Q1 7:08 | 9 | 47 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q1 3:39 | 14 | 76 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| NYJ | Q2 12:11 | 11 | 57 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| LAC | Q2 7:18 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:16 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 21–10 |
| LAC | Q2 0:17 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–10 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 21–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 12:40 | 7 | 38 | Punt | 21–10 |
| LAC | Q3 8:28 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 21–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 7:30 | 10 | 55 | Touchdown | 21–17 |
| LAC | Q3 2:57 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 21–17 |
| NYJ | Q3 1:45 | 5 | 3 | Punt | 21–17 |
| LAC | Q4 14:45 | 8 | 52 | Turnover | 21–17 |
| NYJ | Q4 10:56 | 6 | 14 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| LAC | Q4 8:41 | 5 | 23 | Turnover | 21–24 |
| NYJ | Q4 5:23 | 9 | 15 | Field goal | 21–27 |
| LAC | Q4 1:36 | 5 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 21–27 |
| NYJ | Q4 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 18/33 | 173 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 20 | 112 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Joe McKnight | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Keller | 4 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 4 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 4 | 8 | 25 | 3 |
| Santonio Holmes | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Matthew Mulligan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+2.08
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.