Closing spread
SD -9
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
SD perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 7–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. SD are 4-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 12/23 | 100 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 23 | 128 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 14 | 41 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braylon Edwards | 2 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 3 | 6 | 19 | 1 |
| Shonn Greene | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Wallace Wright | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.99
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+0.98
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.