Closing spread
LAC -10
Total
47
Model margin
+0.1est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.116EPA / play+0.043
- 40.9%Success rate43.8%
- -0.098EPA / dropback+0.154
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.141
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.9%
- -2.07CPOE+0.07
- 34.4%Third-down rate45.1%
- 41.2%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.24Points / drive2.02
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 7–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. LAC are 4-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 15/30 | 205 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 15 | 61 | 4.1 | 1 |
| La'Mical Perine | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel Mims | 3 | 7 | 71 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 2 | 4 | 54 | 1 |
| Chris Herndon | 2 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 4 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Jeff Smith | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| La'Mical Perine | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 37/49 | 366 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalen Ballage | 16 | 44 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Troymaine Pope | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 16 | 19 | 145 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 4 | 7 | 72 | 1 |
| Tyron Johnson | 1 | 1 | 54 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 7 | 48 | 1 |
| Kalen Ballage | 7 | 9 | 27 | 0 |
| Troymaine Pope | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.71%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.3%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.93
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-4.06
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin+0.10