2020 · Week 11

Final

Jets

New York

QB Joe Flacco

28·34

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -10

Total

47

Model margin

+0.1est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

2.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapChargers
  • -0.116EPA / play+0.043
  • 40.9%Success rate43.8%
  • -0.098EPA / dropback+0.154
  • -0.146EPA / rush-0.141
  • 7.4%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -2.07CPOE+0.07
  • 34.4%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 41.2%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.24Points / drive2.02
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 7–5 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. LAC are 4-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9LAC @ NYJ27–6CHARGERS
2017 · W16LAC @ NYJ14–7CHARGERS
2014 · W5NYJ @ SD0–31CHARGERS
2012 · W16SD @ NYJ27–17CHARGERS
2011 · W7SD @ NYJ21–27NYJ
2009 · playoffsNYJ @ SD17–14NYJ
2008 · W3NYJ @ SD29–48CHARGERS
2005 · W9SD @ NYJ31–26CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–LAC
LACQ1 15:00829Punt0–0
NYJQ1 11:04429Touchdown6–0
LACQ1 9:051266Turnover6–6
NYJQ1 3:2410Opp touchdown6–7
NYJQ1 3:2030Punt6–7
LACQ1 1:05557Touchdown6–14
NYJQ2 14:1733Punt6–14
LACQ2 13:00768Touchdown6–21
NYJQ2 10:01531Punt6–21
LACQ2 7:15839Punt6–21
NYJQ2 3:58719Punt6–21
LACQ2 1:16818Field goal6–24
NYJQ3 15:00779Touchdown13–24
LACQ3 11:271275Touchdown13–31
NYJQ3 5:331460Touchdown19–31
LACQ3 0:221656Field goal19–34
NYJQ4 6:42964Touchdown26–34
LACQ4 4:0030Punt26–34
NYJQ4 2:4877Turnover on downs26–34
LACQ4 1:464-32Safety28–34
NYJQ4 0:0100End of half28–34

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco15/3020521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore15614.11
La'Mical Perine8334.11
Joe Flacco122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Denzel Mims37710
Breshad Perriman24541
Chris Herndon23321
Ty Johnson46170
Jamison Crowder14160
Frank Gore22100
Jeff Smith1150
La'Mical Perine0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert37/4936630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kalen Ballage16442.80
Justin Herbert2115.50
Troymaine Pope341.30
Joshua Kelley4-2-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen16191451
Mike Williams47721
Tyron Johnson11540
Hunter Henry47481
Kalen Ballage79270
Troymaine Pope22120
Jalen Guyton1140
Joshua Kelley2240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +107.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.71%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.3%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.93
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.06
  • Rest differential-0.48
  • Expected margin+0.10