Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
37
Model margin
+3.4est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 7–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. NYJ are 8-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg McElroy | 14/24 | 185 | 0 | 1 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 1/1 | 42 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 14 | 38 | 2.7 | 2 |
| Greg McElroy | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Joe McKnight | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Gates | 3 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Chaz Schilens | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Hayden Smith | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Konrad Reuland | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.03
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.35
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.