2012 · Week 16

Final

Chargers

San Diego

QB Philip Rivers

27·17

Jets

New York

QB Greg McElroy

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 39°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

NYJ -3

Total

37

Model margin

+3.4est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

SD lead 7–5 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. NYJ are 8-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9LAC @ NYJ27–6CHARGERS
2020 · W11NYJ @ LAC28–34CHARGERS
2017 · W16LAC @ NYJ14–7CHARGERS
2014 · W5NYJ @ SD0–31CHARGERS
2011 · W7SD @ NYJ21–27NYJ
2009 · playoffsNYJ @ SD17–14NYJ
2008 · W3NYJ @ SD29–48CHARGERS
2005 · W9SD @ NYJ31–26CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSD–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:003-8Opp touchdown7–0
NYJQ1 13:01783Touchdown7–7
LACQ1 9:2033Punt7–7
NYJQ1 7:41836Touchdown7–14
LACQ1 4:133-5Punt7–14
NYJQ1 2:3035Punt7–14
LACQ1 0:261360Field goal10–14
NYJQ2 8:323-2Punt10–14
LACQ2 6:36418Punt10–14
NYJQ2 4:27828Punt10–14
LACQ2 0:1110End of half10–14
LACQ3 15:00881Touchdown17–14
NYJQ3 11:11414Punt17–14
LACQ3 8:20615Punt17–14
NYJQ3 5:023-15Punt17–14
LACQ3 3:15533Touchdown24–14
NYJQ3 1:34413Turnover24–14
LACQ3 0:1039Field goal27–14
NYJQ4 14:07638Field goal27–17
LACQ4 11:08820Punt27–17
NYJQ4 6:33629Turnover27–17
LACQ4 4:463-7Punt27–17
NYJQ4 3:3364Turnover on downs27–17
LACQ4 1:5400End of half27–17

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Greg McElroy14/2418501
Jeremy Kerley1/14200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene14382.72
Greg McElroy4256.30
Joe McKnight177.00
Jeremy Kerley122.00
Bilal Powell3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Clyde Gates36650
Shonn Greene23420
Bilal Powell44370
Braylon Edwards35360
Chaz Schilens22310
Hayden Smith11160
Jeff Cumberland0100
Jeremy Kerley0100
Konrad Reuland0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.0%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.03
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.35

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.