Closing spread
SD -7
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
SD perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 7–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. SD are 4-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 8/19 | 47 | 0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 4/12 | 27 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Kerley | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Jace Amaro | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Greg Salas | 2 | 7 | 12 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
4.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.40
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.