2014 · Week 5

Final

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

0·31

Chargers

San Diego

QB Philip Rivers

Qualcomm Stadium · outdoors · grass · 91°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

SD -7

Total

44.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

SD perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

SD lead 7–5 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. SD are 4-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9LAC @ NYJ27–6CHARGERS
2020 · W11NYJ @ LAC28–34CHARGERS
2017 · W16LAC @ NYJ14–7CHARGERS
2012 · W16SD @ NYJ27–17CHARGERS
2011 · W7SD @ NYJ21–27NYJ
2009 · playoffsNYJ @ SD17–14NYJ
2008 · W3NYJ @ SD29–48CHARGERS
2005 · W9SD @ NYJ31–26CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–SD
NYJQ1 15:0058Punt0–0
LACQ1 13:091185Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 7:31514Punt0–7
LACQ1 5:17735Punt0–7
NYJQ1 2:1137Punt0–7
LACQ1 0:12769Turnover0–7
NYJQ2 12:0510Turnover0–7
LACQ2 11:57617Touchdown0–14
NYJQ2 10:15522Punt0–14
LACQ2 7:2812101Touchdown0–21
NYJQ2 0:4249Turnover0–21
LACQ2 0:011-1End of half0–21
LACQ3 15:003-4Punt0–21
NYJQ3 12:553-3Punt0–21
LACQ3 11:49990Touchdown0–28
NYJQ3 6:4455Punt0–28
LACQ3 4:4934Punt0–28
NYJQ3 3:1031Punt0–28
LACQ3 2:17622Field goal0–31
NYJQ4 13:2832Punt0–31
LACQ4 12:17617Punt0–31
NYJQ4 8:471248Turnover on downs0–31
LACQ4 4:3334Punt0–31
NYJQ4 2:07838End of half0–31

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick8/194700
Geno Smith4/122701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory9444.90
Chris Johnson7243.40
Mike Vick2147.00
Bilal Powell263.00
Geno Smith133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Kerley36240
Jace Amaro33190
Jeff Cumberland26120
Greg Salas27120
David Nelson1490
Chris Ivory0100
Trevor Graham0100
Chris Johnson11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

4.82%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.40

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.