2005 · Week 10

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brad Johnson

24·21

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 62°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

NYG -10

Total

45

Model margin

+3.1est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapGiants
  • -0.074EPA / play+0.041
  • 40.6%Success rate42.4%
  • -0.009EPA / dropback+0.087
  • -0.185EPA / rush-0.026
  • 7.1%Explosive rate9.0%
  • 33.7%Third-down rate39.9%
  • 48.7%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
  • 1.46Points / drive1.87
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.1%
  • -0.028EPA / play allowed-0.047

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 12–7 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. NYG are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16MIN @ NYG16–13MIN
2024 · W1MIN @ NYG28–6MIN
2022 · playoffsNYG @ MIN31–24NYG
2022 · W16NYG @ MIN24–27MIN
2019 · W5MIN @ NYG28–10MIN
2016 · W4NYG @ MIN10–24MIN
2015 · W16NYG @ MIN17–49MIN
2013 · W7MIN @ NYG7–23NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–NYG
NYGQ1 15:0000Missed field goal0–0
MINQ1 14:5334Missed field goal0–0
NYGQ1 12:5135Punt0–0
MINQ1 11:4451Punt0–0
NYGQ1 10:1631Turnover0–0
MINQ1 9:2632Missed field goal0–0
NYGQ1 8:1435Punt0–0
MINQ1 7:093-1Punt0–0
NYGQ1 5:391161Opp touchdown7–0
NYGQ2 14:43563Field goal7–3
MINQ2 11:49514Punt7–3
NYGQ2 8:10944Field goal7–6
MINQ2 3:3931Punt7–6
NYGQ2 2:52417Missed field goal7–6
MINQ2 1:136-15End of half13–6
MINQ3 15:0000Touchdown14–6
NYGQ3 14:49745Touchdown14–13
MINQ3 11:461157Punt14–13
NYGQ3 6:3730Opp touchdown21–13
NYGQ3 5:2748Punt21–13
MINQ3 3:57212Turnover21–13
NYGQ3 3:1130Turnover21–13
MINQ3 2:33514Punt21–13
NYGQ4 14:541033Punt21–13
MINQ4 10:0039Punt21–13
NYGQ4 7:531051Turnover21–13
MINQ4 3:483-3Punt21–13
NYGQ4 3:17962Touchdown21–21
MINQ4 1:21742Field goal24–21
NYGQ4 0:10110End of half24–21

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson17/3014400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Bennett19160.80
Ciatrick Fason100.00
Nate Burleson1-4-4.00

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning23/4829114

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber23954.11
Eli Manning22412.00
Tim Carter155.00
Brandon Jacobs122.00
Derrick Ward2-2-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

3.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.55
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.11