Closing spread
NYG -10
Total
45
Model margin
+3.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play+0.041
- 40.6%Success rate42.4%
- -0.009EPA / dropback+0.087
- -0.185EPA / rush-0.026
- 7.1%Explosive rate9.0%
- 33.7%Third-down rate39.9%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
- 1.46Points / drive1.87
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.028EPA / play allowed-0.047
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 12–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. NYG are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 17/30 | 144 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 19 | 16 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Ciatrick Fason | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 23/48 | 291 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 23 | 95 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Tim Carter | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
3.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.55
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.11