Closing spread
JAX -14.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+8.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.203EPA / play+0.026
- 34.0%Success rate42.5%
- -0.265EPA / dropback+0.113
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.079
- 6.8%Explosive rate9.0%
- 25.0%Third-down rate41.0%
- 34.8%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 0.94Points / drive1.68
- 3.5%Turnover rate1.5%
- +0.076EPA / play allowed-0.066
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42.4 points. JAX are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 8/24 | 123 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 19 | 79 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Maurice Hicks | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 21/40 | 216 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 17 | 61 | 3.6 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Matt Jones | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.0%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.30
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.21
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.07