Closing spread
JAX -14.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+8.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.203EPA / play+0.026
- 34.0%Success rate42.5%
- -0.265EPA / dropback+0.113
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.079
- 6.8%Explosive rate9.0%
- 25.0%Third-down rate41.0%
- 34.8%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 0.94Points / drive1.68
- 3.5%Turnover rate1.5%
- +0.076EPA / play allowed-0.066
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42.4 points. JAX are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 40 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| JAX | Q1 10:33 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 8:16 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–0 |
| JAX | Q1 7:15 | 7 | 50 | Turnover on downs | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 4:00 | 7 | 36 | Punt | 3–0 |
| JAX | Q1 0:13 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SF | Q2 13:49 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 3–0 |
| JAX | Q2 12:56 | 12 | 71 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| SF | Q2 6:26 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q2 5:12 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–7 |
| SF | Q2 4:45 | 5 | 34 | Punt | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q2 1:54 | 7 | 20 | Punt | 3–7 |
| SF | Q2 0:24 | 2 | 51 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| JAX | Q2 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–7 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 40 | Punt | 6–7 |
| SF | Q3 9:46 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 6–7 |
| JAX | Q3 7:39 | 8 | 43 | Missed field goal | 6–7 |
| SF | Q3 3:58 | 9 | 37 | Field goal | 9–7 |
| JAX | Q4 14:56 | 10 | 44 | Field goal | 9–10 |
| SF | Q4 9:41 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 9–10 |
| JAX | Q4 8:30 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 9–10 |
| SF | Q4 6:45 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 9–10 |
| JAX | Q4 5:46 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 9–10 |
| SF | Q4 4:02 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 9–10 |
| JAX | Q4 3:00 | 6 | 33 | Punt | 9–10 |
| SF | Q4 1:06 | 4 | 7 | Turnover on downs | 9–10 |
| JAX | Q4 0:43 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 9–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 8/24 | 123 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 19 | 79 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Maurice Hicks | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 21/40 | 216 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 17 | 61 | 3.6 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Matt Jones | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.0%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.30
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.21
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.07