Closing spread
SF -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
-1.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.179EPA / play-0.032
- 51.6%Success rate43.1%
- +0.298EPA / dropback+0.053
- +0.034EPA / rush-0.192
- 13.8%Explosive rate7.1%
- +4.51CPOE+1.62
- 48.1%Third-down rate38.5%
- 70.4%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 2.69Points / drive1.84
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42.4 points. JAX are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 19/26 | 296 | 3 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 1/2 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 16 | 95 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 1 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 3 | 4 | 116 | 1 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 3 | 3 | 55 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 10 | 47 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Ronnie Bell | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 17/29 | 185 | 0 | 2 |
| C.J. Beathard | 1/2 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 6 | 11 | 104 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Tim Jones | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 7 | 12 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brenton Strange | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.9%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.89
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.19