2023 · Week 10

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

34·3

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

SF -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

-1.2est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapJaguars
  • +0.179EPA / play-0.032
  • 51.6%Success rate43.1%
  • +0.298EPA / dropback+0.053
  • +0.034EPA / rush-0.192
  • 13.8%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +4.51CPOE+1.62
  • 48.1%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 70.4%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
  • 2.69Points / drive1.84
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 42.4 points. JAX are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4JAX @ SF26–21JAX
2021 · W11SF @ JAX30–10SF
2017 · W16JAX @ SF33–44SF
2013 · W8SF @ JAX42–10SF
2009 · W12JAX @ SF3–20SF
2005 · W15SF @ JAX9–10JAX
1999 · W1SF @ JAX3–41JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–JAX
JAXQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:39457Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 11:3430Punt7–0
SFQ1 8:59941Field goal10–0
JAXQ1 4:21621Punt10–0
SFQ1 1:31413Punt10–0
JAXQ2 14:50413Turnover10–0
SFQ2 13:2244Punt10–0
JAXQ2 11:561485Field goal10–3
SFQ2 4:201059Field goal13–3
SFQ3 15:00275Touchdown20–3
JAXQ3 14:10641Turnover20–3
SFQ3 10:3736Punt20–3
JAXQ3 8:29963Turnover20–3
SFQ3 5:17781Touchdown27–3
JAXQ3 1:206-3Turnover27–3
SFQ4 14:12340Touchdown34–3
JAXQ4 12:403-4Punt34–3
SFQ4 11:471364Turnover on downs34–3
JAXQ4 2:5636Punt34–3
SFQ4 1:4300End of half34–3

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy19/2629630
Sam Darnold1/2600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey16955.90
Deebo Samuel Sr.3299.71
Elijah Mitchell8232.90
Sam Darnold3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle341161
Brandon Aiyuk33551
Christian McCaffrey610470
Deebo Samuel Sr.44300
Ronnie Bell11200
Jauan Jennings1280

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence17/2918502
C.J. Beathard1/2500
Christian Kirk0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne9353.90
D'Ernest Johnson3124.00
Trevor Lawrence273.50
Tank Bigsby351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk6111040
D'Ernest Johnson22280
Calvin Ridley23200
Tim Jones22170
Evan Engram47120
Travis Etienne2490
Tank Bigsby0100
Brenton Strange0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.9%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.89
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.19