2013 · Week 8

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

42·10

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Chad Henne

Wembley Stadium · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

SF -16

Total

40

Model margin

-1.4est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapJaguars
  • +0.034EPA / play-0.156
  • 41.8%Success rate38.3%
  • +0.156EPA / dropback-0.143
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.181
  • 10.6%Explosive rate6.6%
  • -1.63CPOE-4.13
  • 37.8%Third-down rate31.0%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
  • 1.99Points / drive1.03
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 42.4 points. JAX are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4JAX @ SF26–21JAX
2023 · W10SF @ JAX34–3SF
2021 · W11SF @ JAX30–10SF
2017 · W16JAX @ SF33–44SF
2009 · W12JAX @ SF3–20SF
2005 · W15SF @ JAX9–10JAX
1999 · W1SF @ JAX3–41JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–JAX
SFQ1 15:00876Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 11:421037Punt7–0
SFQ1 6:50949Touchdown14–0
JAXQ1 2:3634Punt14–0
SFQ1 1:331057Touchdown21–0
JAXQ2 11:523-1Punt21–0
SFQ2 10:27663Touchdown28–0
JAXQ2 7:4936Punt28–0
SFQ2 6:21618Punt28–0
JAXQ2 2:501160Field goal28–3
SFQ2 0:101-1End of half28–3
JAXQ3 15:001678Turnover on downs28–3
SFQ3 6:38522Turnover28–3
JAXQ3 3:52328Touchdown28–10
SFQ3 3:00454Touchdown35–10
JAXQ3 0:52622Opp touchdown42–10
JAXQ4 13:241884Turnover on downs42–10
SFQ4 5:03860End of half42–10

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick10/1616410
Colt McCoy1/11300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kendall Hunter9849.30
Frank Gore19713.72
Colin Kaepernick7547.72
Kyle Williams11010.00
Anthony Dixon122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin46560
Vernon Davis34521
Kyle Williams1370
Frank Gore1160

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne29/4522810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew19753.90
Denard Robinson4153.80
Chad Henne111.00
Justin Blackmon1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cecil Shorts710740
Maurice Jones-Drew68470
Mike Brown36431
Justin Blackmon410310
Ace Sanders11110
Clay Harbor1170
Marcedes Lewis1360
Justin Forsett3360

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -162.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

1.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.4%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.38