Closing spread
SF -16
Total
40
Model margin
-1.4est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.034EPA / play-0.156
- 41.8%Success rate38.3%
- +0.156EPA / dropback-0.143
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.181
- 10.6%Explosive rate6.6%
- -1.63CPOE-4.13
- 37.8%Third-down rate31.0%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 1.99Points / drive1.03
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42.4 points. JAX are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 10/16 | 164 | 1 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 1/1 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Hunter | 9 | 84 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 19 | 71 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 7 | 54 | 7.7 | 2 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 4 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 4 | 52 | 1 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 29/45 | 228 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 19 | 75 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Justin Blackmon | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Shorts | 7 | 10 | 74 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 6 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Mike Brown | 3 | 6 | 43 | 1 |
| Justin Blackmon | 4 | 10 | 31 | 0 |
| Ace Sanders | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.4%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.38