Closing spread
JAX -4
Total
43
Model margin
+7.0est.
SF perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.020EPA / play-0.041
- 41.7%Success rate41.2%
- +0.095EPA / dropback-0.001
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.110
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.2%
- -2.97CPOE-3.27
- 36.9%Third-down rate39.5%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
- 1.81Points / drive1.75
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42.4 points. SF are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 32/50 | 382 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 18 | 48 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Blake Bortles | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelan Cole | 6 | 13 | 108 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 4 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 7 | 10 | 64 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 5 | 6 | 39 | 1 |
| Jaelen Strong | 3 | 4 | 38 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Ben Koyack | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Jaydon Mickens | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 21/30 | 242 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Breida | 11 | 74 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Carlos Hyde | 21 | 54 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 3 | 3 | 42 | 1 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 3 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 3 | 4 | 19 | 1 |
| Louis Murphy | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.3%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.53
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+7.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.96