2017 · Week 16

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

33·44

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

JAX -4

Total

43

Model margin

+7.0est.

SF perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge map49ers
  • +0.020EPA / play-0.041
  • 41.7%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.095EPA / dropback-0.001
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.110
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -2.97CPOE-3.27
  • 36.9%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 62.0%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
  • 1.81Points / drive1.75
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 42.4 points. SF are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4JAX @ SF26–21JAX
2023 · W10SF @ JAX34–3SF
2021 · W11SF @ JAX30–10SF
2013 · W8SF @ JAX42–10SF
2009 · W12JAX @ SF3–20SF
2005 · W15SF @ JAX9–10JAX
1999 · W1SF @ JAX3–41JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–SF
SFQ1 15:001079Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 10:183-1Punt0–7
SFQ1 9:26854Field goal0–10
JAXQ1 5:42730Punt0–10
SFQ1 2:16627Punt0–10
JAXQ2 13:24622Opp touchdown2–16
JAXQ2 11:031347Touchdown9–16
SFQ2 5:101073Turnover9–16
JAXQ2 1:40990Touchdown16–16
SFQ2 0:1000End of half16–16
JAXQ3 15:00858Field goal19–16
SFQ3 10:573-2Punt19–16
JAXQ3 9:3333Turnover19–16
SFQ3 8:41526Touchdown19–23
JAXQ3 6:46841Punt19–23
SFQ3 2:061352Touchdown19–30
JAXQ4 10:3910Turnover19–30
SFQ4 10:23318Touchdown19–37
JAXQ4 8:5937Punt19–37
SFQ4 8:0832Punt19–37
JAXQ4 6:311690Touchdown27–37
SFQ4 2:1700Touchdown27–37
JAXQ4 2:13341Touchdown33–37
SFQ4 1:50441Touchdown33–44
JAXQ4 1:24644End of half33–44

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles32/5038223

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette18482.71
Blake Bortles5316.20
T.J. Yeldon5132.61

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keelan Cole6131080
Dede Westbrook47740
T.J. Yeldon710640
James O'Shaughnessy56391
Jaelen Strong34381
Marcedes Lewis11220
Leonard Fournette33220
Ben Koyack22100
Jaydon Mickens1450

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo21/3024221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Breida11746.71
Carlos Hyde21542.61
Jimmy Garoppolo331.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle33421
Marquise Goodwin36370
Carlos Hyde33190
Trent Taylor34191
Louis Murphy11170
Aldrick Robinson12120
Kendrick Bourne15120
Matt Breida1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -43.1%5.9%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.3%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.53
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+7.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.96