2025 · Week 4

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

26·21

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

SF -3.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

-1.3est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge map49ers
  • +0.039EPA / play+0.091
  • 44.5%Success rate48.5%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback+0.175
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.033
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -1.56CPOE+5.72
  • 40.9%Third-down rate50.4%
  • 66.3%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
  • 2.30Points / drive2.48
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 42.4 points. SF are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W10SF @ JAX34–3SF
2021 · W11SF @ JAX30–10SF
2017 · W16JAX @ SF33–44SF
2013 · W8SF @ JAX42–10SF
2009 · W12JAX @ SF3–20SF
2005 · W15SF @ JAX9–10JAX
1999 · W1SF @ JAX3–41JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–SF
SFQ1 15:001257Field goal0–3
JAXQ1 8:331248Punt0–3
SFQ1 1:40426Turnover6–3
JAXQ2 14:50148Touchdown7–3
SFQ2 14:41437Turnover7–3
JAXQ2 13:0215107Touchdown14–3
SFQ2 5:0136Punt14–3
JAXQ2 3:263-1Punt14–3
SFQ2 2:281160Field goal14–6
JAXQ2 0:40429Field goal17–6
JAXQ3 15:0039Punt17–6
SFQ3 12:361061Touchdown17–14
JAXQ3 8:32721Punt17–14
SFQ3 6:1410Turnover17–14
JAXQ3 6:02411Field goal20–14
SFQ3 4:0731Opp touchdown26–14
SFQ3 2:22739Turnover on downs26–14
JAXQ4 14:1438Punt26–14
SFQ4 11:57892Touchdown26–21
JAXQ4 7:41837Missed field goal26–21
SFQ4 3:32210Turnover26–21
JAXQ4 2:47313End of half26–21

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence21/3117410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne191246.51
Bhayshul Tuten4143.50
Trevor Lawrence771.00
Brian Thomas Jr.177.00
Parker Washington1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Thomas Jr.57490
Brenton Strange67450
Hunter Long33231
Bhayshul Tuten1180
LeQuint Allen Jr.1170
Travis Etienne1210
Johnny Mundt0100
Parker Washington0200
Tim Patrick11-10

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy22/3830922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey17492.90
Brian Robinson5214.20
Brock Purdy2136.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian McCaffrey611921
Jake Tonges35581
Ricky Pearsall45460
Jauan Jennings24240
Demarcus Robinson12200
Luke Farrell22200
Kendrick Bourne14170
Skyy Moore0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.6%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.98
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.28