Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.039EPA / play+0.091
- 44.5%Success rate48.5%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.175
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.033
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.2%
- -1.56CPOE+5.72
- 40.9%Third-down rate50.4%
- 66.3%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
- 2.30Points / drive2.48
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42.4 points. SF are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 21/31 | 174 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 19 | 124 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 7 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Parker Washington | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 5 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Brenton Strange | 6 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Hunter Long | 3 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Parker Washington | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 22/38 | 309 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 17 | 49 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 11 | 92 | 1 |
| Jake Tonges | 3 | 5 | 58 | 1 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.6%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.98
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.28