2009 · Week 12

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

3·20

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

SF -3

Total

42.5

Model margin

+5.5est.

SF perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge map49ers
  • +0.008EPA / play-0.067
  • 43.2%Success rate37.0%
  • -0.010EPA / dropback-0.055
  • +0.036EPA / rush-0.087
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +1.59CPOE-2.69
  • 46.1%Third-down rate29.4%
  • 59.7%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.54
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 42.4 points. SF are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4JAX @ SF26–21JAX
2023 · W10SF @ JAX34–3SF
2021 · W11SF @ JAX30–10SF
2017 · W16JAX @ SF33–44SF
2013 · W8SF @ JAX42–10SF
2005 · W15SF @ JAX9–10JAX
1999 · W1SF @ JAX3–41JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–SF
SFQ1 15:00951Field goal0–3
JAXQ1 10:03419Punt0–3
SFQ1 7:0933Punt0–3
JAXQ1 5:27534Punt0–3
SFQ1 2:28414Punt0–3
JAXQ1 0:10425Missed field goal0–3
SFQ2 13:481070Touchdown0–10
JAXQ2 8:5834Punt0–10
SFQ2 7:5736Punt0–10
JAXQ2 7:07524Punt0–10
SFQ2 3:58959Touchdown0–17
JAXQ2 0:52458Field goal3–17
JAXQ3 15:00549Turnover3–17
SFQ3 12:22964Field goal3–20
JAXQ3 7:291456Turnover3–20
SFQ4 14:5232Punt3–20
JAXQ4 13:051385Missed field goal3–20
SFQ4 7:3664Punt3–20
JAXQ4 4:0773Turnover on downs3–20
SFQ4 2:48313End of half3–20

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard25/3630700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew15755.00
Rashad Jennings2115.50
David Garrard2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Thomas44620
Torry Holt47500
Mike Sims-Walker49460
Marcedes Lewis35400
Ernest Wilford22390
Maurice Jones-Drew55350
Rashad Jennings22250
Zach Miller11100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith27/4123220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore16332.10
Delanie Walker11111.00
Alex Smith382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vernon Davis69691
Michael Crabtree48540
Delanie Walker45520
Josh Morgan68430
Frank Gore710141
Jason Hill0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.5%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.97
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.46