Closing spread
SF -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.067
- 43.2%Success rate37.0%
- -0.010EPA / dropback-0.055
- +0.036EPA / rush-0.087
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.1%
- +1.59CPOE-2.69
- 46.1%Third-down rate29.4%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.59Points / drive1.54
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42.4 points. SF are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 25/36 | 307 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 15 | 75 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Thomas | 4 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Torry Holt | 4 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Mike Sims-Walker | 4 | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Ernest Wilford | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 5 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 27/41 | 232 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 16 | 33 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 6 | 9 | 69 | 1 |
| Michael Crabtree | 4 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 4 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 6 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 7 | 10 | 14 | 1 |
| Jason Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.46