Closing spread
SF -6.5
Total
45
Model margin
-1.7est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play-0.079
- 45.5%Success rate44.0%
- +0.174EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.113
- 10.9%Explosive rate7.1%
- +1.73CPOE-4.53
- 40.6%Third-down rate35.6%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 2.30Points / drive1.33
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42.4 points. JAX are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 16/22 | 176 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 8 | 79 | 9.9 | 1 |
| Jeff Wilson | 19 | 50 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Trey Sermon | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Trey Lance | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 7 | 7 | 85 | 1 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 4 | 34 | 1 |
| Trey Sermon | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 16/25 | 158 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 5 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| John Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.5%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.48
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-1.70