1999 · Week 1

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Steve Young

3·41

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

JAX -5.5

Total

49

Model margin

+9.0est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapJaguars
  • -0.036EPA / play+0.048
  • 41.7%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.026EPA / dropback+0.145
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.086
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.0%
  • 34.4%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 42.7%Red-zone TD rate46.2%
  • 1.14Points / drive1.75
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.5%
  • +0.079EPA / play allowed-0.127

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 42.4 points. JAX are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4JAX @ SF26–21JAX
2023 · W10SF @ JAX34–3SF
2021 · W11SF @ JAX30–10SF
2017 · W16JAX @ SF33–44SF
2013 · W8SF @ JAX42–10SF
2009 · W12JAX @ SF3–20SF
2005 · W15SF @ JAX9–10JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–JAX
JAXQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:2535Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:503-3Punt0–0
SFQ1 10:11524Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 7:38457Field goal3–3
SFQ1 5:0439Punt3–3
JAXQ1 2:57520Punt3–3
SFQ1 0:2534Punt3–3
JAXQ2 13:4739Punt3–3
SFQ2 11:5330Turnover3–3
JAXQ2 11:2941Punt3–3
SFQ2 9:1735Punt3–3
JAXQ2 7:411061Field goal3–6
SFQ2 1:49652Turnover3–6
JAXQ2 0:3539End of half3–6
SFQ3 15:0037Punt3–6
JAXQ3 13:47748Field goal3–15
SFQ3 9:2100Touchdown3–17
JAXQ3 9:2100Touchdown3–17
SFQ3 9:21928Turnover on downs3–17
JAXQ3 6:10956Touchdown3–24
SFQ3 1:3735Punt3–24
JAXQ3 0:27432Field goal3–27
SFQ4 14:4638Punt3–27
JAXQ4 12:47751Touchdown3–34
SFQ4 9:1336Turnover3–34
JAXQ4 7:5941Turnover on downs3–34
SFQ4 5:481061Opp touchdown3–41
JAXQ4 2:5300Opp touchdown3–41
SFQ4 2:533-11Punt3–41
JAXQ4 0:4400End of half3–41

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve Young9/259602
Jeff Garcia5/94501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Charlie Garner11615.50
Steve Young6254.20
Lawrence Phillips382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrell Owens58760
Jerry Rice29170
Charlie Garner13140
Lawrence Phillips1150
J.J. Stokes1450
Mark Harris1140
Terry Jackson1130
Chad Fann0200

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell22/3026510
Jay Fiedler0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor24743.10
James Stewart4153.81
Mark Brunell2126.00
Tavian Banks2-2-1.00
Jay Fiedler2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Smith691390
Keenan McCardell810780
Reggie Barlow23410
Kyle Brady23130
Damon Jones1241
Alvis Whitted0100
Fred Taylor22-70

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.52.7%5.3%6.9%3.1%4.9%3.5%3.5%2.8%2.5%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

3.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

72.1%

Expected total

47.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.49
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.97