Closing spread
JAX -5.5
Total
49
Model margin
+9.0est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play+0.048
- 41.7%Success rate42.5%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.145
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.086
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- 34.4%Third-down rate40.4%
- 42.7%Red-zone TD rate46.2%
- 1.14Points / drive1.75
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.5%
- +0.079EPA / play allowed-0.127
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42.4 points. JAX are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Young | 9/25 | 96 | 0 | 2 |
| Jeff Garcia | 5/9 | 45 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 11 | 61 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Steve Young | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Lawrence Phillips | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 5 | 8 | 76 | 0 |
| Jerry Rice | 2 | 9 | 17 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Lawrence Phillips | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Mark Harris | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Chad Fann | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 22/30 | 265 | 1 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 24 | 74 | 3.1 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Mark Brunell | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tavian Banks | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 6 | 9 | 139 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 8 | 10 | 78 | 0 |
| Reggie Barlow | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Damon Jones | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Alvis Whitted | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 2 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
72.1%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.91
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.49
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.97