Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
46
Model margin
+2.3est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 6–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 50 points. STL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 13/26 | 138 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 15 | 103 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 10 | 58 | 5.8 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.33
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.