Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
46
Model margin
+2.3est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 50.8 points. STL are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 11:30 | 15 | 64 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q1 3:44 | 4 | 6 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 1:19 | 3 | 1 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q1 0:20 | 1 | 1 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 0:12 | 6 | 14 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| DEN | Q2 13:21 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| LA | Q2 11:54 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 0–9 |
| DEN | Q2 10:24 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–9 |
| LA | Q2 8:22 | 5 | 38 | Field goal | 0–12 |
| DEN | Q2 5:48 | 12 | 79 | Touchdown | 7–12 |
| LA | Q2 0:26 | 1 | 1 | End of half | 7–12 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 36 | Field goal | 7–15 |
| DEN | Q3 11:27 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 7–15 |
| LA | Q3 7:58 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 7–15 |
| DEN | Q3 6:07 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–15 |
| LA | Q3 5:11 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 7–15 |
| DEN | Q3 2:26 | 6 | 34 | Field goal | 10–15 |
| LA | Q4 14:18 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–15 |
| DEN | Q4 12:46 | 2 | 36 | Turnover | 10–15 |
| LA | Q4 12:00 | 10 | 67 | Field goal | 10–18 |
| DEN | Q4 6:24 | 10 | 39 | Turnover | 10–18 |
| LA | Q4 2:26 | 3 | 54 | End of half | 10–18 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 13/26 | 138 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 15 | 103 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 10 | 58 | 5.8 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.33
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.