Closing spread
STL -3
Total
51
Model margin
+3.1est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 50.8 points. DEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 59 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 10:12 | 13 | 82 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 3:51 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 2:04 | 7 | 37 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| LA | Q2 13:05 | 10 | 46 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| DEN | Q2 6:43 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LA | Q2 5:45 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| DEN | Q2 4:30 | 6 | 40 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| LA | Q2 1:16 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| DEN | Q2 1:09 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 3–16 |
| LA | Q2 0:32 | 4 | 45 | Field goal | 6–16 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 6–16 |
| LA | Q3 14:55 | 3 | 5 | Touchdown | 13–16 |
| DEN | Q3 14:04 | 9 | 35 | Turnover | 13–16 |
| LA | Q3 10:25 | 7 | 17 | Punt | 13–16 |
| DEN | Q3 6:19 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 13–16 |
| LA | Q3 4:45 | 6 | 31 | Turnover on downs | 13–16 |
| DEN | Q3 1:17 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–16 |
| LA | Q4 14:49 | 10 | 50 | Missed field goal | 13–16 |
| DEN | Q4 10:02 | 8 | 71 | Touchdown | 13–23 |
| LA | Q4 5:55 | 7 | 59 | Field goal | 16–23 |
| DEN | Q4 2:12 | 3 | 10 | End of half | 16–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 18/27 | 202 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olandis Gary | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed McCaffrey | 2 | 3 | 50 | 1 |
| Olandis Gary | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 5 | 9 | 47 | 1 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
6.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.09
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.