Closing spread
STL -3
Total
51
Model margin
+3.1est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 6–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 50 points. DEN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 18/27 | 202 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olandis Gary | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed McCaffrey | 2 | 3 | 50 | 1 |
| Olandis Gary | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 5 | 9 | 47 | 1 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
6.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.09
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.