2026 · Week 3

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

26·30

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

DEN -1.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.0est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.059EPA / play-0.040
  • 49.0%Success rate37.9%
  • +0.117EPA / dropback-0.004
  • -0.042EPA / rush-0.093
  • 8.1%Explosive rate6.4%
  • +1.33CPOE-2.61
  • 46.2%Third-down rate31.4%
  • 65.6%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
  • 2.15Points / drive1.75
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 50.8 points. DEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W16DEN @ LA14–51RAMS
2018 · W6LA @ DEN23–20RAMS
2014 · W11DEN @ STL7–22RAMS
2010 · W12STL @ DEN36–33RAMS
2006 · W1DEN @ STL10–18RAMS
2002 · W1STL @ DEN16–23DEN
2000 · W1DEN @ STL36–41RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–DEN
LAQ1 15:00727Punt0–0
DENQ1 10:5834Punt0–0
LAQ1 9:271163Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 4:55925Missed field goal7–0
LAQ1 1:19759Field goal10–0
DENQ2 13:1737Punt10–0
LAQ2 11:451565Field goal13–0
DENQ2 4:43831Punt13–0
LAQ2 1:07859Field goal16–0
DENQ3 15:0036Punt16–0
LAQ3 13:5733Punt16–0
DENQ3 12:521236Touchdown16–8
LAQ3 7:44614Punt16–8
DENQ3 5:11744Touchdown16–16
LAQ3 2:1562Punt16–16
DENQ4 14:39428Turnover16–16
LAQ4 12:5867Field goal19–16
DENQ4 8:4038Punt19–16
LAQ4 7:03453Opp touchdown19–23
LAQ4 4:49477Touchdown26–23
DENQ4 3:381368Touchdown26–30
LAQ4 0:47753Turnover26–30

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford30/5539022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams15885.90
Blake Corum6152.50
Matthew Stafford2136.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams7131370
Konata Mumpfield48931
Kyren Williams67700
Tyler Higbee811621
Davis Allen23190
Terrance Ferguson1290
Colby Parkinson0100
Blake Corum2400

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix17/3418621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins17492.90
Jaylen Waddle11414.00
Bo Nix471.81
RJ Harvey263.00
Tyler Badie122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton37460
Pat Bryant22441
RJ Harvey67410
Troy Franklin11210
Tyler Badie11120
Jaylen Waddle27100
Nate Adkins1281
J.K. Dobbins1240
Evan Engram0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.8%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.27
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.03