Closing spread
LA -2.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.226EPA / play-0.378
- 43.3%Success rate36.0%
- -0.270EPA / dropback-0.442
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.228
- 6.7%Explosive rate2.0%
- -4.74CPOE-7.78
- 22.2%Third-down rate16.7%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 0.69Points / drive0.83
- 3.3%Turnover rate4.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 6–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 50 points. DEN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
40.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.77