2022 · Week 16

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Russell Wilson

14·51

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Baker Mayfield

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

DEN -3

Total

36.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

LA perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapRams
  • -0.077EPA / play-0.083
  • 39.4%Success rate41.2%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback-0.094
  • -0.124EPA / rush-0.065
  • 8.7%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -1.65CPOE-2.69
  • 29.1%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 61.5%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 1.34Points / drive1.57
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 50.8 points. LA are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3LA @ DEN26–30DEN
2018 · W6LA @ DEN23–20RAMS
2014 · W11DEN @ STL7–22RAMS
2010 · W12STL @ DEN36–33RAMS
2006 · W1DEN @ STL10–18RAMS
2002 · W1STL @ DEN16–23DEN
2000 · W1DEN @ STL36–41RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–LA
LAQ1 15:001056Field goal0–3
DENQ1 8:2631Turnover0–3
LAQ1 7:35334Touchdown0–10
DENQ1 6:1934Turnover0–10
LAQ1 5:12211Touchdown0–17
DENQ1 4:45849Field goal3–17
LAQ1 0:391175Touchdown3–24
DENQ2 9:42612Punt3–24
LAQ2 7:121285Touchdown3–31
DENQ2 1:06644Field goal6–31
DENQ3 15:00647Turnover6–31
LAQ3 12:571468Field goal6–34
DENQ3 3:493-9Punt6–34
LAQ3 2:18955Touchdown6–41
DENQ4 12:311475Touchdown14–41
LAQ4 8:3036Field goal14–44
DENQ4 6:16952Opp touchdown14–51
DENQ4 4:08848Turnover on downs14–51
LAQ4 0:0600End of half14–51

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson15/2721413
Brett Rypien4/84501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray8344.30
Chase Edmonds6315.20
Marlon Mack4225.50
Russell Wilson2178.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerry Jeudy6101170
Courtland Sutton57640
Greg Dulcich48391
Chase Edmonds22220
Freddie Swain12110
Latavius Murray1360
Marlon Mack0100
Jalen Virgil0100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield24/2823020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Akers231185.13
Malcolm Brown2199.50
Kyren Williams6183.00
Brandon Powell231.50
Baker Mayfield221.00
Bryce Perkins1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Higbee911942
Brycen Hopkins33570
Cam Akers22290
Van Jefferson35190
Tutu Atwell22140
Brandon Powell33120
Kyren Williams1130
Malcolm Brown1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.79