Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
36.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
LA perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.077EPA / play-0.083
- 39.4%Success rate41.2%
- -0.050EPA / dropback-0.094
- -0.124EPA / rush-0.065
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.4%
- -1.65CPOE-2.69
- 29.1%Third-down rate40.2%
- 61.5%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 1.34Points / drive1.57
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 6–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 50 points. LA are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 15/27 | 214 | 1 | 3 |
| Brett Rypien | 4/8 | 45 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 6 | 10 | 117 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 5 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Greg Dulcich | 4 | 8 | 39 | 1 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Freddie Swain | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Virgil | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 24/28 | 230 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 23 | 118 | 5.1 | 3 |
| Malcolm Brown | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Bryce Perkins | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Higbee | 9 | 11 | 94 | 2 |
| Brycen Hopkins | 3 | 3 | 57 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.79