Closing spread
STL -6.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 50.8 points. STL are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 13:17 | 6 | 59 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:03 | 8 | 42 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| DEN | Q1 5:22 | 5 | 20 | Opp touchdown | 7–7 |
| LA | Q1 2:05 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 7–7 |
| DEN | Q1 2:05 | 8 | 47 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| LA | Q2 13:42 | 9 | 89 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| DEN | Q2 8:53 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| LA | Q2 3:50 | 9 | 77 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| DEN | Q2 0:38 | 1 | 4 | End of half | 17–21 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 75 | Field goal | 20–21 |
| LA | Q3 9:19 | 2 | 72 | Touchdown | 20–28 |
| DEN | Q3 8:09 | 6 | 37 | Punt | 20–28 |
| LA | Q3 5:25 | 3 | 87 | Touchdown | 20–35 |
| DEN | Q3 4:02 | 7 | 40 | Touchdown | 27–35 |
| LA | Q3 0:51 | 9 | 64 | Turnover | 27–35 |
| DEN | Q4 10:59 | 7 | 67 | Field goal | 30–35 |
| LA | Q4 7:32 | 2 | 3 | Opp touchdown | 36–35 |
| DEN | Q4 6:35 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 36–35 |
| LA | Q4 6:35 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 36–41 |
| DEN | Q4 2:58 | 5 | -5 | Turnover on downs | 36–41 |
| LA | Q4 1:23 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 36–41 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 19/29 | 307 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olandis Gary | 13 | 80 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Terrell Davis | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Rod Smith | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed McCaffrey | 7 | 8 | 115 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 3 | 9 | 88 | 1 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 1 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
4.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.0%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.85
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.71
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.