Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 6–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 50 points. DEN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 24/41 | 347 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 12 | 56 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Lance Ball | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lloyd | 4 | 10 | 76 | 2 |
| Eddie Royal | 6 | 9 | 74 | 1 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 6 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 3 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0 |
| Dan Gronkowski | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.97
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.