Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- QuestionableDanario AlexanderWRKnee· Limited
- ProbableDonnie JonesPlf. calf· Limited
- ProbableLaurent RobinsonWRToe· Full
- ProbableRodger SaffoldTShoulder· Full
Broncos
- OutAndre' GoodmanCBHip· DNP
- OutDarcel McBathSQuadricep· DNP
- OutDemaryius ThomasWRAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableD.J. WilliamsLBConcussion· Limited
- ProbableRobert AyersLBFoot· Full
Win probability
- Broncos
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 50.8 points. DEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 11:54 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 10:17 | 8 | 49 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| LA | Q1 7:24 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| DEN | Q1 1:32 | 8 | 58 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| LA | Q2 12:27 | 13 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–13 |
| DEN | Q2 5:45 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–13 |
| LA | Q2 4:08 | 4 | 71 | Touchdown | 20–13 |
| DEN | Q2 2:53 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 20–13 |
| LA | Q2 2:27 | 6 | 40 | Field goal | 23–13 |
| DEN | Q2 0:54 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 23–13 |
| LA | Q2 0:47 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 26–13 |
| DEN | Q2 0:14 | 1 | 12 | End of half | 26–13 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 26–13 |
| DEN | Q3 12:25 | 3 | 19 | Turnover | 26–13 |
| LA | Q3 11:00 | 5 | 31 | Touchdown | 33–13 |
| DEN | Q3 8:55 | 6 | 43 | Punt | 33–13 |
| LA | Q3 5:01 | 8 | 53 | Missed field goal | 33–13 |
| DEN | Q3 0:55 | 3 | 65 | Touchdown | 33–20 |
| LA | Q4 14:54 | 7 | 52 | Field goal | 36–20 |
| DEN | Q4 10:50 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 36–20 |
| LA | Q4 9:39 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 36–20 |
| DEN | Q4 7:59 | 5 | 55 | Touchdown | 36–26 |
| LA | Q4 4:50 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 36–26 |
| DEN | Q4 4:26 | 8 | 59 | Touchdown | 36–33 |
| LA | Q4 2:35 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 36–33 |
| DEN | Q4 1:06 | 5 | -6 | Turnover on downs | 36–33 |
| LA | Q4 0:22 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 36–33 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 24/41 | 347 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 12 | 56 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Lance Ball | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lloyd | 4 | 10 | 76 | 2 |
| Eddie Royal | 6 | 9 | 74 | 1 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 6 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 3 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0 |
| Dan Gronkowski | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.97
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.