Closing spread
LA -7
Total
50
Model margin
-0.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play-0.020
- 50.8%Success rate43.4%
- +0.203EPA / dropback-0.009
- +0.065EPA / rush-0.040
- 12.1%Explosive rate9.9%
- +1.24CPOE-0.98
- 45.0%Third-down rate33.1%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 2.63Points / drive1.60
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 6–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 50 points. DEN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 14/28 | 201 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 28 | 208 | 7.4 | 2 |
| Malcolm Brown | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 7 | 10 | 109 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 25/41 | 322 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royce Freeman | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chad Kelly | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 7 | 10 | 115 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 3 | 4 | 58 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 3 | 4 | 57 | 1 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 6 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Matt LaCosse | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Brian Parker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.1%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.09
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.35