Closing spread
DEN -8
Total
49.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
STL perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Broncos
- OutRonnie HillmanRBFoot· DNP
- DoubtfulVirgil GreenTEKnee· DNP
- ProbableNate IrvingLBKnee· DNP
- ProbableJuwan ThompsonRBKnee· Full
- ProbableMontee BallRBGroin· Full
- ProbableOrlando FranklinGKnee· Full
- ProbablePaul CornickTShoulder· Full
- ProbableQuinton CarterSKnee· Full
- ProbableRyan CladyTGroin· Full
- ProbableSteven JohnsonLBAnkle· Full
Rams
- OutMarcus RobersonCBAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulDamian WilliamsWRHamstring· DNP
- DoubtfulDaren BatesLBGroin· DNP
- DoubtfulLamarcus JoynerCBGroin· DNP
- QuestionableAlex CarringtonDTQuadricep· DNP
- ProbableWill HerringLBFoot· Limited
- ProbableJames LaurinaitisLBFoot· Full
- ProbableWilliam HayesDEFibula· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 50.8 points. STL are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 56 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q1 9:14 | 5 | 31 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 7:16 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q1 5:02 | 10 | 42 | Turnover on downs | 0–9 |
| LA | Q1 1:18 | 1 | 63 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q1 1:10 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LA | Q2 14:45 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q2 13:08 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LA | Q2 10:52 | 10 | 69 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| DEN | Q2 3:57 | 5 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| LA | Q2 2:22 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 7–13 |
| DEN | Q2 0:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–13 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 7–13 |
| LA | Q3 12:29 | 9 | 27 | Punt | 7–13 |
| DEN | Q3 8:12 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 7–13 |
| LA | Q3 5:48 | 7 | 48 | Field goal | 7–16 |
| DEN | Q3 1:41 | 5 | 27 | Turnover | 7–16 |
| LA | Q4 14:55 | 6 | 16 | Field goal | 7–19 |
| DEN | Q4 11:59 | 8 | 40 | Turnover on downs | 7–19 |
| LA | Q4 9:41 | 5 | 4 | Punt | 7–19 |
| DEN | Q4 6:39 | 3 | 16 | Turnover | 7–19 |
| LA | Q4 5:23 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 7–22 |
| DEN | Q4 4:44 | 7 | 44 | Turnover on downs | 7–22 |
| LA | Q4 2:27 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–22 |
| DEN | Q4 0:24 | 1 | 15 | End of half | 7–22 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 34/54 | 389 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 7 | 10 | 103 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 8 | 102 | 1 |
| C.J. Anderson | 8 | 10 | 86 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 4 | 10 | 31 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Juwan Thompson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.49
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.