Closing spread
BUF -1
Total
34.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.151EPA / play-0.089
- 39.3%Success rate41.6%
- -0.174EPA / dropback-0.033
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.157
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.4%
- +1.13CPOE+3.28
- 33.2%Third-down rate30.9%
- 45.1%Red-zone TD rate58.9%
- 0.99Points / drive1.31
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 50.3 points. BUF are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 25/44 | 267 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 10 | 23 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 23/32 | 222 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 28 | 78 | 2.8 | 1 |
| J.P. Losman | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.34