Closing spread
MIN -5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.106EPA / play-0.112
- 40.1%Success rate42.3%
- -0.089EPA / dropback-0.105
- -0.132EPA / rush-0.121
- 8.1%Explosive rate9.3%
- -1.94CPOE-2.30
- 38.1%Third-down rate34.1%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.49Points / drive1.25
- 3.6%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 50.3 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 15/25 | 158 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Donald Jones | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Evans | 3 | 6 | 72 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 2 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 4 | 4 | 34 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Donald Jones | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| David Martin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 15/22 | 187 | 2 | 3 |
| Brett Favre | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 16 | 107 | 6.7 | 3 |
| Toby Gerhart | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Albert Young | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Rice | 5 | 6 | 105 | 2 |
| Greg Camarillo | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.6%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.72