2010 · Week 13

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

14·38

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brett Favre

Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+4.7est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapVikings
  • -0.106EPA / play-0.112
  • 40.1%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.089EPA / dropback-0.105
  • -0.132EPA / rush-0.121
  • 8.1%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -1.94CPOE-2.30
  • 38.1%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.25
  • 3.6%Turnover rate3.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 50.3 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W10MIN @ BUF33–30MIN
2018 · W3BUF @ MIN27–6BUF
2014 · W7MIN @ BUF16–17BUF
2006 · W4MIN @ BUF12–17BUF
2002 · W2BUF @ MIN45–39BUF
2000 · W8BUF @ MIN27–31MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–MIN
MINQ1 15:0035Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 13:3333Punt0–0
MINQ1 12:03644Punt0–0
BUFQ1 9:03618Punt0–0
MINQ1 5:5936Opp touchdown7–0
MINQ1 4:34570Touchdown7–7
BUFQ1 1:4500Touchdown7–7
MINQ1 1:3759Touchdown7–14
BUFQ2 14:5632Punt7–14
MINQ2 13:07545Touchdown7–21
BUFQ2 11:00411Turnover7–21
MINQ2 8:4725Touchdown7–28
BUFQ2 8:0037Punt7–28
MINQ2 5:081162Field goal7–31
BUFQ3 15:0038Punt7–31
MINQ3 13:1436Turnover7–31
BUFQ3 11:52335Turnover7–31
MINQ3 10:40528Punt7–31
BUFQ3 7:18742Punt7–31
MINQ3 2:47530Turnover7–31
BUFQ3 0:042-3Turnover7–37
MINQ4 14:52143Touchdown7–38
BUFQ4 14:46968Turnover7–38
MINQ4 9:25517Punt7–38
BUFQ4 5:45543Touchdown14–38
MINQ4 4:43617Punt14–38
BUFQ4 0:2315End of half14–38

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick15/2515811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson11423.80
C.J. Spiller7355.00
Ryan Fitzpatrick451.30
Donald Jones122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lee Evans36720
Steve Johnson24360
David Nelson44341
Fred Jackson1160
Donald Jones1310
C.J. Spiller2210
David Martin1100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tarvaris Jackson15/2218723
Brett Favre0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson161076.73
Toby Gerhart12544.50
Albert Young10272.70
Tarvaris Jackson22211.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sidney Rice561052
Greg Camarillo25270
Jimmy Kleinsasser33250
Visanthe Shiancoe23170
Bernard Berrian13140
Adrian Peterson1110
Toby Gerhart12-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.6%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.23
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.72