2018 · Week 3

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

27·6

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -16.5

Total

41

Model margin

+1.3est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapVikings
  • -0.140EPA / play-0.075
  • 37.8%Success rate43.2%
  • -0.137EPA / dropback-0.011
  • -0.143EPA / rush-0.203
  • 7.7%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -7.12CPOE+2.40
  • 32.3%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 50.4%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
  • 1.26Points / drive1.57
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 50.3 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W10MIN @ BUF33–30MIN
2014 · W7MIN @ BUF16–17BUF
2010 · W13BUF @ MIN14–38MIN
2006 · W4MIN @ BUF12–17BUF
2002 · W2BUF @ MIN45–39BUF
2000 · W8BUF @ MIN27–31MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–MIN
BUFQ1 15:001050Touchdown7–0
MINQ1 10:0133Turnover7–0
BUFQ1 9:2139Field goal10–0
MINQ1 7:2430Turnover10–0
BUFQ1 5:57225Touchdown17–0
MINQ1 5:09519Punt17–0
BUFQ1 2:591169Touchdown24–0
MINQ2 12:1431Punt24–0
BUFQ2 10:02937Field goal27–0
MINQ2 6:1633Punt27–0
BUFQ2 4:361055Punt27–0
MINQ2 0:56420End of half27–0
MINQ3 15:0069Punt27–0
BUFQ3 11:3830Punt27–0
MINQ3 9:3620Turnover27–0
BUFQ3 9:24823Punt27–0
MINQ3 3:57417Punt27–0
BUFQ3 2:4038Punt27–0
MINQ3 0:331261Turnover on downs27–0
BUFQ4 11:27512Punt27–0
MINQ4 7:191383Touchdown27–6
BUFQ4 2:5934Punt27–6
MINQ4 1:53776End of half27–6

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen15/2219610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory20562.80
Josh Allen10393.92
Marcus Murphy8334.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Ivory34700
Andre Holmes34290
Kelvin Benjamin35290
Jason Croom11261
Charles Clay23180
Zay Jones11170
Ray-Ray McCloud1160
Marcus Murphy1110
Robert Foster0200

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins40/5529611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Boone2115.50
Kirk Cousins221.00
Latavius Murray210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen14191050
Kyle Rudolph56481
Laquon Treadwell44330
Latavius Murray57300
Stefon Diggs410170
Aldrick Robinson1190
Tyler Conklin1170
Mike Boone1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +16.57.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.80%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

40.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.34