Closing spread
MIN -16.5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.3est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.140EPA / play-0.075
- 37.8%Success rate43.2%
- -0.137EPA / dropback-0.011
- -0.143EPA / rush-0.203
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.0%
- -7.12CPOE+2.40
- 32.3%Third-down rate36.2%
- 50.4%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
- 1.26Points / drive1.57
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 50.3 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 15/22 | 196 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 20 | 56 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Marcus Murphy | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 3 | 4 | 70 | 0 |
| Andre Holmes | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Jason Croom | 1 | 1 | 26 | 1 |
| Charles Clay | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Marcus Murphy | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Robert Foster | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 40/55 | 296 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Boone | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 14 | 19 | 105 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 5 | 6 | 48 | 1 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 5 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 10 | 17 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
40.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.40
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.34