Closing spread
BUF -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.034EPA / play-0.076
- 42.2%Success rate41.0%
- -0.018EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.061EPA / rush-0.158
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.5%
- -2.18CPOE-1.80
- 39.7%Third-down rate37.3%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
- 1.59Points / drive1.48
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 50.3 points. BUF are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 15/26 | 157 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 19 | 103 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 6 | 7 | 77 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 4 | 4 | 60 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
| Chase Ford | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 31/43 | 283 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 53 | 53.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 13 | 51 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Watkins | 9 | 14 | 122 | 2 |
| Chris Hogan | 5 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Chris Gragg | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
4.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.51
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.99