2014 · Week 7

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Teddy Bridgewater

16·17

Bills

Buffalo

QB Kyle Orton

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · a_turf · 41°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

BUF -7

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBills
  • -0.034EPA / play-0.076
  • 42.2%Success rate41.0%
  • -0.018EPA / dropback-0.029
  • -0.061EPA / rush-0.158
  • 7.6%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -2.18CPOE-1.80
  • 39.7%Third-down rate37.3%
  • 56.2%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.48
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 50.3 points. BUF are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W10MIN @ BUF33–30MIN
2018 · W3BUF @ MIN27–6BUF
2010 · W13BUF @ MIN14–38MIN
2006 · W4MIN @ BUF12–17BUF
2002 · W2BUF @ MIN45–39BUF
2000 · W8BUF @ MIN27–31MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–BUF
MINQ1 15:00520Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:12735Turnover0–0
MINQ1 9:16738Punt0–0
BUFQ1 5:44522Turnover0–0
MINQ1 3:4935Field goal3–0
BUFQ1 1:5039Punt3–0
MINQ1 0:0287Turnover3–0
BUFQ2 12:12623Punt3–0
MINQ2 9:3410Turnover3–6
BUFQ2 9:28126Touchdown3–7
MINQ2 9:23565Touchdown10–7
BUFQ2 6:17566Field goal10–10
MINQ2 4:013-4Punt10–10
BUFQ2 2:10625Turnover10–10
MINQ2 1:19422Field goal13–10
BUFQ2 0:1500End of half13–10
BUFQ3 15:0039Punt13–10
MINQ3 13:00422Punt13–10
BUFQ3 10:13642Turnover13–10
MINQ3 7:18420Punt13–10
BUFQ3 4:243-1Punt13–10
MINQ3 2:281246Field goal16–10
BUFQ4 11:45923Punt16–10
MINQ4 6:49735Punt16–10
BUFQ4 3:071495Touchdown16–17
MINQ4 0:0100End of half16–17

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater15/2615712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerick McKinnon191035.40
Matt Asiata6244.00
Teddy Bridgewater177.00
Cordarrelle Patterson133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Jennings67770
Jarius Wright44600
Matt Asiata12130
Cordarrelle Patterson2491
Chase Ford0300
Rhett Ellison0100
Adam Thielen0100
Jerick McKinnon24-20

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton31/4328321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Spiller15353.00
Anthony Dixon13513.90
Fred Jackson3124.00
Kyle Orton1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sammy Watkins9141222
Chris Hogan56630
Scott Chandler35360
Chris Gragg22190
Fred Jackson33160
Anthony Dixon34150
Robert Woods45100
C.J. Spiller1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

4.79%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.51
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.99