Closing spread
BUF -6.5
Total
47
Model margin
+3.3est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.111
- 45.8%Success rate49.0%
- +0.070EPA / dropback+0.203
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.064
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.3%
- +1.66CPOE+0.35
- 40.7%Third-down rate51.1%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 2.04Points / drive2.48
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 50.3 points. BUF are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 30/50 | 357 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 14 | 119 | 8.5 | 1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 10 | 16 | 193 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 5 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 7 | 10 | 45 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 4 | 11 | 35 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 29/43 | 330 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 6 | 84 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 2 |
| James Cook | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 12 | 16 | 128 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 6 | 10 | 93 | 1 |
| Dawson Knox | 4 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
4.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.61
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.31