2022 · Week 10

Final / OT

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

33·30

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 38°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

BUF -6.5

Total

47

Model margin

+3.3est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBills
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.111
  • 45.8%Success rate49.0%
  • +0.070EPA / dropback+0.203
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.064
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +1.66CPOE+0.35
  • 40.7%Third-down rate51.1%
  • 65.2%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 2.04Points / drive2.48
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 50.3 points. BUF are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2018 · W3BUF @ MIN27–6BUF
2014 · W7MIN @ BUF16–17BUF
2010 · W13BUF @ MIN14–38MIN
2006 · W4MIN @ BUF12–17BUF
2002 · W2BUF @ MIN45–39BUF
2000 · W8BUF @ MIN27–31MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–BUF
BUFQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:07674Touchdown7–0
BUFQ1 10:13432Touchdown7–7
MINQ1 8:10314Punt7–7
BUFQ1 6:131070Touchdown7–14
MINQ1 1:04211Turnover7–14
BUFQ1 0:18612Field goal7–17
MINQ2 12:531256Field goal10–17
BUFQ2 7:12763Turnover10–17
MINQ2 3:1549Turnover on downs10–17
BUFQ2 1:50571Touchdown10–24
MINQ2 0:2832Punt10–24
MINQ3 15:00642Turnover10–24
BUFQ3 12:2246Punt10–24
MINQ3 10:18719Punt10–24
BUFQ3 6:12746Field goal10–27
MINQ3 1:51181Touchdown17–27
BUFQ3 1:341477Turnover17–27
MINQ4 10:271366Touchdown23–27
BUFQ4 4:3430Punt23–27
MINQ4 3:261360Turnover on downs29–27
BUFQ4 0:4910Opp touchdown30–27
BUFQ4 0:41555Field goal30–30
MINQ4 0:0200End of half30–30
MINOT1248Field goal33–30
BUFOT652Turnover33–30

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins30/5035712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook141198.51
Kirk Cousins6122.00
Alexander Mattison3113.70
K.J. Osborn122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson10161931
Adam Thielen57490
T.J. Hockenson710450
K.J. Osborn411350
Dalvin Cook35270
Alexander Mattison1180

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen29/4333012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen68414.00
Devin Singletary13473.62
James Cook5224.40
Isaiah McKenzie11818.00
Duke Johnson242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs12161280
Gabe Davis610931
Dawson Knox46570
Isaiah McKenzie44370
Nyheim Hines1190
Khalil Shakir1260
Devin Singletary1200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

4.82%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.61
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.31