Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Total
49
Model margin
+2.8est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.021EPA / play+0.060
- 47.1%Success rate45.1%
- +0.091EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.110EPA / rush+0.071
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.3%
- 42.2%Third-down rate43.6%
- 59.5%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
- 1.81Points / drive1.93
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.4%
- +0.022EPA / play allowed+0.082
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 50.3 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 35/49 | 463 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 12 | 30 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peerless Price | 13 | 16 | 185 | 2 |
| Josh Reed | 8 | 11 | 110 | 1 |
| Eric Moulds | 8 | 13 | 86 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 25/45 | 281 | 3 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moe Williams | 17 | 102 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Michael Bennett | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 4 | 41 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 11 | 21 | 111 | 1 |
| D'Wayne Bates | 3 | 3 | 68 | 1 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 6 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 3 | 9 | 25 | 1 |
| Chris Walsh | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Hunter Goodwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.80