2002 · Week 2

Final / OT

Bills

Buffalo

QB Drew Bledsoe

45·39

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Daunte Culpepper

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

MIN -3.5

Total

49

Model margin

+2.8est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapVikings
  • +0.021EPA / play+0.060
  • 47.1%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.091EPA / dropback+0.054
  • -0.110EPA / rush+0.071
  • 8.3%Explosive rate9.3%
  • 42.2%Third-down rate43.6%
  • 59.5%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
  • 1.81Points / drive1.93
  • 2.6%Turnover rate3.4%
  • +0.022EPA / play allowed+0.082

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 50.3 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W10MIN @ BUF33–30MIN
2018 · W3BUF @ MIN27–6BUF
2014 · W7MIN @ BUF16–17BUF
2010 · W13BUF @ MIN14–38MIN
2006 · W4MIN @ BUF12–17BUF
2000 · W8BUF @ MIN27–31MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–MIN
MINQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:3339Punt0–0
MINQ1 12:021053Field goal0–3
BUFQ1 7:32846Field goal3–3
MINQ1 3:562-4Turnover3–3
BUFQ1 2:55525Field goal6–3
MINQ1 0:301267Touchdown6–10
BUFQ2 8:54423Punt6–10
MINQ2 7:071252Field goal6–13
BUFQ2 2:13682Touchdown13–13
MINQ2 1:06944Missed field goal13–13
BUFQ3 15:0030Punt13–13
MINQ3 14:1623Touchdown19–20
BUFQ3 13:3600Touchdown20–20
MINQ3 13:24523Turnover20–20
BUFQ3 10:59733Field goal23–20
MINQ3 6:141068Touchdown23–26
BUFQ3 1:3045Punt29–26
MINQ4 14:121-20Opp touchdown30–26
BUFQ4 14:0100Opp touchdown30–26
MINQ4 14:011382Touchdown30–32
BUFQ4 7:271063Touchdown36–32
MINQ4 3:081061Touchdown36–39
BUFQ4 0:26329Field goal39–39
BUFOT631Punt39–39
MINOT37Punt39–39
BUFOT846Missed field goal39–39
MINOT36Punt39–39
BUFOT276Touchdown45–39

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe35/4946330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Henry12302.50
Drew Bledsoe100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Peerless Price13161852
Josh Reed8111101
Eric Moulds813860
Jay Riemersma23380

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daunte Culpepper25/4528130
Randy Moss0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Moe Williams171026.01
Michael Bennett10454.50
Doug Chapman44110.30
Daunte Culpepper7202.91
Randy Moss155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randy Moss11211111
D'Wayne Bates33681
Jimmy Kleinsasser68560
Derrick Alexander39251
Chris Walsh22210
Hunter Goodwin0100
Moe Williams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.24
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.80