Closing spread
MIN -6.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-1.2est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play+0.102
- 39.9%Success rate44.7%
- +0.029EPA / dropback+0.184
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.026
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.6%
- 38.0%Third-down rate46.0%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
- 1.36Points / drive2.14
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed+0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 50.3 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 11:19 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 10:22 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 7:37 | 9 | 46 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q1 2:27 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| MIN | Q1 1:18 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q1 0:19 | 5 | 53 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| MIN | Q2 13:38 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–3 |
| BUF | Q2 11:49 | 21 | 100 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| MIN | Q2 0:54 | 5 | 62 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 69 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| BUF | Q3 9:17 | 14 | 85 | Touchdown | 17–13 |
| MIN | Q3 1:13 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 17–13 |
| BUF | Q3 0:13 | 4 | 34 | Touchdown | 24–13 |
| MIN | Q4 14:19 | 8 | 74 | Touchdown | 24–21 |
| BUF | Q4 9:34 | 5 | 23 | Field goal | 27–21 |
| MIN | Q4 6:39 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 27–21 |
| BUF | Q4 5:28 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 27–21 |
| MIN | Q4 3:54 | 2 | 39 | Touchdown | 27–28 |
| BUF | Q4 3:42 | 4 | 24 | Turnover | 27–28 |
| MIN | Q4 2:46 | 6 | 36 | Field goal | 27–31 |
| BUF | Q4 1:04 | 6 | 38 | End of half | 27–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 28/43 | 294 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Bryson | 11 | 72 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 14 | 31 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Doug Flutie | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 12 | 20 | 135 | 1 |
| Peerless Price | 3 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Jeremy McDaniel | 5 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 4 | 5 | 39 | 1 |
| Kwame Cavil | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 17/29 | 251 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 16 | 68 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 5 | 8 | 110 | 1 |
| Cris Carter | 7 | 12 | 107 | 2 |
| Matt Hatchette | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Johnny McWilliams | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Robert Smith | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.8%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.63
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.14
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.21