Closing spread
DAL -13
Total
43.5
Model margin
-2.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.062EPA / play+0.072
- 43.2%Success rate45.5%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.052EPA / rush-0.024
- 6.8%Explosive rate9.8%
- +4.14CPOE+3.73
- 38.7%Third-down rate49.3%
- 64.6%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 1.41Points / drive2.18
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42.4 points. DAL are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 52 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DAL | Q1 8:55 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q1 6:20 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DAL | Q1 4:49 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q1 3:52 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DAL | Q1 1:50 | 5 | 19 | Turnover on downs | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q2 14:56 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DAL | Q2 13:31 | 15 | 72 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| HOU | Q2 5:58 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 3–3 |
| DAL | Q2 2:26 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 3–3 |
| HOU | Q2 0:47 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 63 | Touchdown | 6–10 |
| HOU | Q3 10:13 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 6–10 |
| DAL | Q3 7:20 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 6–10 |
| HOU | Q3 6:17 | 4 | 15 | Turnover | 6–10 |
| DAL | Q3 4:28 | 3 | 23 | Touchdown | 6–17 |
| HOU | Q3 3:41 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 6–17 |
| DAL | Q3 2:45 | 7 | 40 | Touchdown | 6–24 |
| HOU | Q4 14:57 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 6–24 |
| DAL | Q4 14:52 | 6 | 23 | Field goal | 6–27 |
| HOU | Q4 11:28 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 6–27 |
| DAL | Q4 10:11 | 12 | 76 | Touchdown | 6–34 |
| HOU | Q4 2:24 | 11 | 70 | End of half | 6–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 15/27 | 128 | 0 | 2 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 8/11 | 70 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 10 | 14 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Samkon Gado | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 17/28 | 168 | 2 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 2/2 | 35 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 22 | 106 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 10 | 57 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Tyson Thompson | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.6%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-4.97
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-2.04