Closing spread
HOU -3.5
Total
45
Model margin
+2.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play+0.032
- 43.9%Success rate44.3%
- +0.051EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.149
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.5%
- +1.03CPOE+4.58
- 41.3%Third-down rate36.4%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 1.93Points / drive1.91
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.3 points. HOU are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 18/29 | 208 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 20 | 54 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Swaim | 3 | 3 | 55 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Rico Gathers | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 7 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Blake Jarwin | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 33/44 | 375 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Blue | 20 | 46 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Keke Coutee | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 9 | 13 | 151 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 8 | 8 | 73 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 6 | 9 | 65 | 0 |
| Keke Coutee | 6 | 7 | 51 | 1 |
| Will Fuller | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.05
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.79