2018 · Week 5

Final / OT

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

16·19

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -3.5

Total

45

Model margin

+2.8est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapTexans
  • +0.009EPA / play+0.032
  • 43.9%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.051EPA / dropback+0.144
  • -0.060EPA / rush-0.149
  • 8.9%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +1.03CPOE+4.58
  • 41.3%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.91
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 42.4 points. HOU are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4DAL @ HOU34–30DAL
2024 · W11HOU @ DAL34–10HOU
2022 · W14HOU @ DAL23–27DAL
2014 · W5HOU @ DAL17–20DAL
2010 · W3DAL @ HOU27–13DAL
2006 · W6HOU @ DAL6–34DAL
2002 · W1DAL @ HOU10–19HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–HOU
DALQ1 15:00866Field goal3–0
HOUQ1 10:03745Missed field goal3–0
DALQ1 5:48437Field goal6–0
HOUQ1 3:10970Touchdown6–7
DALQ2 13:40520Punt6–7
HOUQ2 11:571269Field goal6–10
DALQ2 6:001036Turnover6–10
HOUQ2 1:31867Turnover on downs6–10
DALQ2 0:0300End of half6–10
HOUQ3 15:0035Turnover6–10
DALQ3 13:51516Touchdown13–10
HOUQ3 11:52426Punt13–10
DALQ3 9:2632Turnover13–10
HOUQ3 7:55726Field goal13–13
DALQ3 5:02515Punt13–13
HOUQ3 2:3139Punt13–13
DALQ3 0:57523Punt13–13
HOUQ4 13:291027Field goal13–16
DALQ4 8:31445Field goal16–16
HOUQ4 5:3935Punt16–16
DALQ4 3:2530Punt16–16
HOUQ4 1:41741Turnover16–16
DALQ4 0:1020End of half16–16
DALOT733Punt16–16
HOUOT772Field goal16–19

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott18/2920812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott20542.70
Dak Prescott6345.70
Rod Smith3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Geoff Swaim33550
Tavon Austin13440
Rico Gathers11320
Ezekiel Elliott77300
Deonte Thompson24190
Blake Jarwin12110
Cole Beasley1380
Michael Gallup1360
Allen Hurns1231

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson33/4437511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Blue20462.30
Deshaun Watson10404.00
Keke Coutee122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins9131510
Alfred Blue88730
Ryan Griffin69650
Keke Coutee67511
Will Fuller23150
Jordan Akins1290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.79