2026 · Week 4

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

34·30

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

Reliant Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -3

Total

48.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapTexans
  • +0.120EPA / play+0.031
  • 47.6%Success rate43.4%
  • +0.201EPA / dropback+0.138
  • -0.034EPA / rush-0.167
  • 6.1%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +0.48CPOE+2.27
  • 47.2%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 73.2%Red-zone TD rate60.4%
  • 2.88Points / drive2.19
  • 1.1%Turnover rate0.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 42.4 points. HOU are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11HOU @ DAL34–10HOU
2022 · W14HOU @ DAL23–27DAL
2018 · W5DAL @ HOU16–19HOU
2014 · W5HOU @ DAL17–20DAL
2010 · W3DAL @ HOU27–13DAL
2006 · W6HOU @ DAL6–34DAL
2002 · W1DAL @ HOU10–19HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00885Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 10:01944Field goal3–7
HOUQ1 5:10669Field goal3–10
DALQ1 1:49926Field goal6–10
HOUQ2 12:30310Punt6–10
DALQ2 10:1864Punt6–10
HOUQ2 8:1333Punt6–10
DALQ2 7:10620Missed field goal6–10
HOUQ2 4:58528Field goal6–13
DALQ2 2:05627Missed field goal6–13
HOUQ2 0:2629Field goal6–16
DALQ3 15:00449Touchdown13–16
HOUQ3 12:55438Touchdown13–23
DALQ3 10:50955Touchdown20–23
HOUQ3 6:49422Punt20–23
DALQ3 5:041596Touchdown27–23
HOUQ4 11:17417Punt27–23
DALQ4 8:4034Punt27–23
HOUQ4 6:551097Touchdown27–30
DALQ4 2:231174Touchdown34–30
HOUQ4 0:40419End of half34–30

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott32/4533510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams19623.33
Tyler Goodson3124.00
Dak Prescott273.50
CeeDee Lamb1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb17211891
George Pickens23750
Ryan Flournoy45370
Javonte Williams55210
Jake Ferguson34110
Hunter Luepke1120
Tyler Goodson0100
Jonathan Mingo0200
Brevyn Spann-Ford0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud21/3134720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery10242.40
Woody Marks6223.71
C.J. Stroud2126.00
Jaylin Noel144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins781182
Jaylin Noel33850
Xavier Hutchinson35460
Kayshon Boutte34360
Cade Stover11200
Brevin Jordan11130
Dalton Schultz2290
Foster Moreau1110
Woody Marks0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.60
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.61