Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-1.9est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Cowboysedge mapTexans
- +0.271EPA / play+0.071
- 48.3%Success rate48.1%
- +0.425EPA / dropback+0.098
- -0.100EPA / rush+0.030
- 0.0%Explosive rate8.9%
- +7.73CPOE+3.16
- 72.7%Third-down rate43.8%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 2.98Points / drive2.80
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.3 points. HOU are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.07
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.85