2002 · Week 1

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Quincy Carter

10·19

Texans

Houston

QB David Carr

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

DAL -8.5

Total

33.5

Model margin

-2.0est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapTexans
  • -0.190EPA / play-0.226
  • 37.2%Success rate33.0%
  • -0.193EPA / dropback-0.172
  • -0.185EPA / rush-0.307
  • 9.2%Explosive rate5.8%
  • 23.8%Third-down rate25.7%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate39.5%
  • 0.79Points / drive0.66
  • 3.3%Turnover rate2.4%
  • -0.059EPA / play allowed-0.083

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 42.4 points. HOU are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4DAL @ HOU34–30DAL
2024 · W11HOU @ DAL34–10HOU
2022 · W14HOU @ DAL23–27DAL
2018 · W5DAL @ HOU16–19HOU
2014 · W5HOU @ DAL17–20DAL
2010 · W3DAL @ HOU27–13DAL
2006 · W6HOU @ DAL6–34DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00421Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 13:4635Punt0–7
HOUQ1 12:1238Punt0–7
DALQ1 10:3238Punt0–7
HOUQ1 9:16523Punt0–7
DALQ1 6:1635Punt0–7
HOUQ1 5:123-5Punt0–7
DALQ1 3:20429Punt0–7
HOUQ1 0:4655Punt0–7
DALQ2 14:3255Turnover0–7
HOUQ2 12:0432Field goal0–10
DALQ2 10:36530Punt0–10
HOUQ2 7:55518Punt0–10
DALQ2 4:2635Punt0–10
HOUQ2 3:2232Punt0–10
DALQ2 2:01619Field goal3–10
HOUQ2 0:56417End of half3–10
DALQ3 15:00855Missed field goal3–10
HOUQ3 10:16519Punt3–10
DALQ3 7:13484Touchdown10–10
HOUQ3 5:1265Punt10–10
DALQ3 2:31522Punt10–10
HOUQ4 14:05469Touchdown10–17
DALQ4 12:1800Turnover10–17
HOUQ4 12:09512Turnover10–17
DALQ4 9:1330Punt10–17
HOUQ4 8:4832Punt10–17
DALQ4 6:3134Punt10–17
HOUQ4 5:0734Punt10–17
DALQ4 2:472-4Safety10–19
HOUQ4 2:3758End of half10–19

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Quincy Carter13/3013101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith17673.90
Michael Wiley14646.01
Joey Galloway12121.00
Troy Hambrick4164.00
Quincy Carter155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joey Galloway67690
Antonio Bryant414470
Emmitt Smith22120
Troy Hambrick1230
Mike Lucky0100
Michael Wiley0100
Ken-Yon Rambo0300

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Carr10/2214521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Allen19562.90
Jonathan Wells9182.00
David Carr471.80
Jermaine Lewis155.00
Jarrod Baxter210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Bradford46991
Billy Miller12191
James Allen24160
Jermaine Lewis1380
Jonathan Wells1160
Jabar Gaffney16-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -8.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.7%

Expected total

39.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.49
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-5.06
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.01