Closing spread
DAL -8.5
Total
33.5
Model margin
-2.0est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.190EPA / play-0.226
- 37.2%Success rate33.0%
- -0.193EPA / dropback-0.172
- -0.185EPA / rush-0.307
- 9.2%Explosive rate5.8%
- 23.8%Third-down rate25.7%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate39.5%
- 0.79Points / drive0.66
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.059EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.3 points. HOU are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 13/30 | 131 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 17 | 67 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 1 | 46 | 46.0 | 1 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Galloway | 6 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| Antonio Bryant | 4 | 14 | 47 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Mike Lucky | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ken-Yon Rambo | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 10/22 | 145 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 19 | 56 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 9 | 18 | 2.0 | 0 |
| David Carr | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jarrod Baxter | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Bradford | 4 | 6 | 99 | 1 |
| Billy Miller | 1 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| James Allen | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 1 | 6 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.7%
Expected total
39.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-5.06
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.01