2014 · Week 5

Final / OT

Texans

Houston

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

17·20

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapCowboys
  • -0.031EPA / play+0.117
  • 40.7%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.046EPA / dropback+0.286
  • -0.120EPA / rush-0.068
  • 8.8%Explosive rate10.8%
  • -2.14CPOE+5.68
  • 38.0%Third-down rate47.6%
  • 52.8%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
  • 1.63Points / drive2.36
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 42.4 points. DAL are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4DAL @ HOU34–30DAL
2024 · W11HOU @ DAL34–10HOU
2022 · W14HOU @ DAL23–27DAL
2018 · W5DAL @ HOU16–19HOU
2010 · W3DAL @ HOU27–13DAL
2006 · W6HOU @ DAL6–34DAL
2002 · W1DAL @ HOU10–19HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–DAL
HOUQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:3330Punt0–0
HOUQ1 12:36419Turnover0–0
DALQ1 11:121152Turnover0–0
HOUQ1 4:28841Punt0–0
DALQ1 0:221143Punt0–0
HOUQ2 10:02720Punt0–0
HOUQ2 5:4932Punt0–0
DALQ2 4:481170Field goal0–3
HOUQ2 0:1100End of half0–3
DALQ3 15:00615Punt0–3
HOUQ3 12:11671Touchdown7–3
DALQ3 8:49588Touchdown7–10
HOUQ3 6:08413Punt7–10
DALQ3 3:34842Turnover7–10
HOUQ4 14:1037Punt7–10
DALQ4 12:00430Touchdown7–17
HOUQ4 9:441276Field goal10–17
DALQ4 2:2739Punt10–17
HOUQ4 1:59445Touchdown17–17
DALQ4 0:41648Missed field goal17–17
HOUOT432Punt17–17
DALOT859Field goal17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick16/2515401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster231576.82
Alfred Blue5163.20
Ryan Fitzpatrick331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins66630
Andre Johnson58580
Arian Foster25150
Ryan Griffin1180
Keshawn Martin1170
Garrett Graham1130
Damaris Johnson0200

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo28/4132421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray311364.40
Joseph Randle242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant914851
Terrance Williams26711
Jason Witten45590
DeMarco Murray68560
Dwayne Harris33300
Cole Beasley44230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.1%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.75