Closing spread
DAL -5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.031EPA / play+0.117
- 40.7%Success rate46.6%
- +0.046EPA / dropback+0.286
- -0.120EPA / rush-0.068
- 8.8%Explosive rate10.8%
- -2.14CPOE+5.68
- 38.0%Third-down rate47.6%
- 52.8%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
- 1.63Points / drive2.36
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.3 points. DAL are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 16/25 | 154 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 23 | 157 | 6.8 | 2 |
| Alfred Blue | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 6 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 5 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 28/41 | 324 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 31 | 136 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Joseph Randle | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 9 | 14 | 85 | 1 |
| Terrance Williams | 2 | 6 | 71 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 6 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.75