2022 · Week 14

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

23·27

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -17

Total

44.5

Model margin

+5.6est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapCowboys
  • -0.167EPA / play+0.031
  • 38.0%Success rate45.2%
  • -0.147EPA / dropback+0.082
  • -0.204EPA / rush-0.031
  • 7.6%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -4.69CPOE-1.95
  • 30.1%Third-down rate46.2%
  • 52.2%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
  • 1.17Points / drive2.26
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 42.4 points. DAL are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4DAL @ HOU34–30DAL
2024 · W11HOU @ DAL34–10HOU
2018 · W5DAL @ HOU16–19HOU
2014 · W5HOU @ DAL17–20DAL
2010 · W3DAL @ HOU27–13DAL
2006 · W6HOU @ DAL6–34DAL
2002 · W1DAL @ HOU10–19HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–DAL
DALQ1 15:00976Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 11:2033Punt0–7
HOUQ1 9:01724Touchdown7–7
DALQ1 5:3336Punt7–7
HOUQ1 3:27547Field goal10–7
DALQ1 0:18780Touchdown10–14
HOUQ2 12:281035Turnover on downs10–14
DALQ2 6:1336Punt10–14
HOUQ2 4:3632Punt10–14
DALQ2 3:4222Turnover10–14
HOUQ2 3:12232Touchdown17–14
DALQ2 2:231060Field goal17–17
HOUQ2 0:40538Field goal20–17
HOUQ3 15:00412Turnover20–17
DALQ3 12:59926Turnover on downs20–17
HOUQ3 8:19963Field goal23–17
DALQ3 3:03840Field goal23–20
HOUQ4 14:5033Punt23–20
DALQ4 13:2436Punt23–20
HOUQ4 12:03735Punt23–20
DALQ4 8:0155Turnover23–20
HOUQ4 5:3742Turnover on downs23–20
DALQ4 3:201198Touchdown23–27
HOUQ4 0:41331Turnover23–27
DALQ4 0:0300End of half23–27

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills16/2117501
Jeff Driskel4/63810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dameon Pierce22783.51
Jeff Driskel7365.10
Amari Rodgers133.00
Davis Mills122.00
Eno Benjamin310.30
Rex Burkhead2-3-1.50
Dare Ogunbowale1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Moore10111240
Amari Rodgers45571
Phillip Dorsett23180
Rex Burkhead1150
Jordan Akins1250
Dare Ogunbowale2240

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott24/3928412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott15624.11
Tony Pollard10424.21
Dak Prescott6233.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dalton Schultz610870
Noah Brown46850
Michael Gallup26400
CeeDee Lamb56330
Tony Pollard45201
Ezekiel Elliott35190
James Washington0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +177.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.9%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.89
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.59