Closing spread
DAL -17
Total
44.5
Model margin
+5.6est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.167EPA / play+0.031
- 38.0%Success rate45.2%
- -0.147EPA / dropback+0.082
- -0.204EPA / rush-0.031
- 7.6%Explosive rate9.6%
- -4.69CPOE-1.95
- 30.1%Third-down rate46.2%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
- 1.17Points / drive2.26
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.3 points. DAL are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 16/21 | 175 | 0 | 1 |
| Jeff Driskel | 4/6 | 38 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 22 | 78 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Jeff Driskel | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Amari Rodgers | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Eno Benjamin | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Moore | 10 | 11 | 124 | 0 |
| Amari Rodgers | 4 | 5 | 57 | 1 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 24/39 | 284 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 15 | 62 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Tony Pollard | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz | 6 | 10 | 87 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 4 | 6 | 85 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 2 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 4 | 5 | 20 | 1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| James Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.9%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.89
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.59