2010 · Week 3

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

27·13

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -1.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapTexans
  • -0.002EPA / play+0.107
  • 43.2%Success rate47.5%
  • +0.048EPA / dropback+0.151
  • -0.085EPA / rush+0.039
  • 9.1%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +2.25CPOE+0.65
  • 40.4%Third-down rate41.2%
  • 65.7%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
  • 1.67Points / drive2.09
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 42.4 points. HOU are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4DAL @ HOU34–30DAL
2024 · W11HOU @ DAL34–10HOU
2022 · W14HOU @ DAL23–27DAL
2018 · W5DAL @ HOU16–19HOU
2014 · W5HOU @ DAL17–20DAL
2006 · W6HOU @ DAL6–34DAL
2002 · W1DAL @ HOU10–19HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–HOU
DALQ1 15:001153Turnover on downs0–0
HOUQ1 8:18628Punt0–0
DALQ1 4:4238Punt0–0
HOUQ1 2:251275Field goal0–3
DALQ2 11:061490Touchdown7–3
HOUQ2 3:36513Punt7–3
DALQ2 1:40840Field goal10–3
HOUQ3 15:001037Punt10–3
DALQ3 9:5337Punt10–3
HOUQ3 8:06619Turnover10–3
DALQ3 5:36790Touchdown17–3
HOUQ3 1:341059Field goal17–6
DALQ4 12:03469Touchdown24–6
HOUQ4 9:53215Turnover24–6
DALQ4 9:04929Field goal27–6
HOUQ4 3:361072Touchdown27–13
DALQ4 1:1500Turnover27–13
HOUQ4 1:13322Turnover27–13
DALQ4 0:4400End of half27–13

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo23/3028420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marion Barber17553.21
Felix Jones7436.10
Tashard Choice242.00
Tony Romo1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roy Williams561172
Jason Witten78560
Dez Bryant46500
Martellus Bennett34260
Miles Austin23200
Sam Hurd11100
Marion Barber1150

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub23/3224112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster171066.20
Steve Slaton3144.70
Derrick Ward242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson47640
Jacoby Jones55510
Kevin Walter34341
Owen Daniels36270
Arian Foster45200
Joel Dreessen11180
David Anderson1160
Steve Slaton1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.4%

Expected total

47.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.05
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.17
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.36