Closing spread
HOU -1.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.002EPA / play+0.107
- 43.2%Success rate47.5%
- +0.048EPA / dropback+0.151
- -0.085EPA / rush+0.039
- 9.1%Explosive rate10.7%
- +2.25CPOE+0.65
- 40.4%Third-down rate41.2%
- 65.7%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
- 1.67Points / drive2.09
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.3 points. HOU are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 23/30 | 284 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 17 | 55 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Felix Jones | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Williams | 5 | 6 | 117 | 2 |
| Jason Witten | 7 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Sam Hurd | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 23/32 | 241 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 17 | 106 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Steve Slaton | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 4 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 5 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 3 | 4 | 34 | 1 |
| Owen Daniels | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| David Anderson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Steve Slaton | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
47.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.05
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.17
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.36