Closing spread
HOU -7.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.038EPA / play-0.089
- 39.1%Success rate41.4%
- +0.008EPA / dropback-0.067
- -0.120EPA / rush-0.128
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.7%
- -2.77CPOE-4.87
- 38.2%Third-down rate37.1%
- 54.6%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
- 1.84Points / drive1.68
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.3 points. DAL are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 23/34 | 257 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 20 | 109 | 5.5 | 3 |
| C.J. Stroud | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Tank Dell | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 4 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Tank Dell | 4 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 5 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Cade Stover | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 32/55 | 354 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 8 | 12 | 93 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 3 | 3 | 86 | 1 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 6 | 10 | 56 | 0 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.4%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.96
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.26