2024 · Week 11

Final

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

34·10

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Cooper Rush

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

HOU -7.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-0.3est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapCowboys
  • -0.038EPA / play-0.089
  • 39.1%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.008EPA / dropback-0.067
  • -0.120EPA / rush-0.128
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -2.77CPOE-4.87
  • 38.2%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 54.6%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.68
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 42.4 points. DAL are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4DAL @ HOU34–30DAL
2022 · W14HOU @ DAL23–27DAL
2018 · W5DAL @ HOU16–19HOU
2014 · W5HOU @ DAL17–20DAL
2010 · W3DAL @ HOU27–13DAL
2006 · W6HOU @ DAL6–34DAL
2002 · W1DAL @ HOU10–19HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–DAL
HOUQ1 15:00777Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 12:42619Turnover on downs7–0
HOUQ1 10:3647Turnover7–0
DALQ1 8:22526Turnover7–0
HOUQ1 5:491158Touchdown14–0
DALQ1 0:49369Touchdown14–7
HOUQ2 14:51871Field goal17–7
DALQ2 9:10735Field goal17–10
HOUQ2 5:55419Punt17–10
DALQ2 3:551348Missed field goal17–10
HOUQ2 0:5630Punt17–10
DALQ2 0:37612Turnover on downs17–10
DALQ3 15:0035Punt17–10
HOUQ3 12:521075Field goal20–10
DALQ3 7:051462Turnover on downs20–10
HOUQ3 2:13626Punt20–10
DALQ4 14:26431Opp touchdown27–10
DALQ4 12:3154Punt27–10
HOUQ4 11:26424Punt27–10
DALQ4 9:45926Turnover on downs27–10
HOUQ4 6:06634Touchdown34–10
DALQ4 3:16951End of half34–10

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud23/3425701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon201095.53
C.J. Stroud3268.70
Tank Dell144.00
Dameon Pierce122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins47540
Tank Dell47540
Joe Mixon24440
Dalton Schultz57330
John Metchie III33330
Cade Stover22150
Robert Woods22130
Dare Ogunbowale11110

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cooper Rush32/5535411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rico Dowdle10282.80
CeeDee Lamb11313.00
Deuce Vaughn4133.30
Ezekiel Elliott188.00
Cooper Rush221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb812930
KaVontae Turpin33861
Luke Schoonmaker610560
Brevyn Spann-Ford45420
Jalen Tolbert25210
Ryan Flournoy23190
Ezekiel Elliott33160
Jake Ferguson11110
Rico Dowdle2560
Deuce Vaughn1240
Jonathan Mingo0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

4.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.4%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.96
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.26