2006 · Week 6
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
WAS -11.5
Total
39
Model margin
+3.1est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.086EPA / play-0.006
- 37.6%Success rate40.9%
- -0.059EPA / dropback+0.034
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.052
- 9.1%Explosive rate10.8%
- -5.37CPOE-2.46
- 32.7%Third-down rate38.5%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
- 1.35Points / drive1.58
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. WAS are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 13/25 | 161 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 32 | 178 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Vince Young | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 16/30 | 180 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 14 | 58 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Santana Moss | 2 | 33 | 16.5 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.55
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.11