2014 · Week 7
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
WAS -6
Total
46
Model margin
+5.8est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.122EPA / play-0.052
- 39.5%Success rate41.7%
- -0.086EPA / dropback-0.031
- -0.190EPA / rush-0.089
- 8.4%Explosive rate9.8%
- -2.82CPOE+1.13
- 29.7%Third-down rate31.3%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 1.18Points / drive1.39
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. WAS are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Whitehurst | 17/26 | 160 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bishop Sankey | 16 | 56 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Charlie Whitehurst | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Wright | 6 | 9 | 68 | 1 |
| Derek Hagan | 2 | 2 | 45 | 1 |
| Delanie Walker | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Chase Coffman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 2 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 10/16 | 139 | 0 | 1 |
| Colt McCoy | 11/12 | 128 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 18 | 54 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 5 | 6 | 87 | 1 |
| Niles Paul | 2 | 2 | 58 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 5 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 3 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.4%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.27
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.78