2014 · Week 7

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Charlie Whitehurst

17·19

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

WAS -6

Total

46

Model margin

+5.8est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapCommanders
  • -0.122EPA / play-0.052
  • 39.5%Success rate41.7%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback-0.031
  • -0.190EPA / rush-0.089
  • 8.4%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -2.82CPOE+1.13
  • 29.7%Third-down rate31.3%
  • 50.7%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
  • 1.18Points / drive1.39
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. WAS are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13TEN @ WAS19–42WAS
2022 · W5TEN @ WAS21–17TEN
2018 · W16WAS @ TEN16–25TEN
2010 · W11WAS @ TEN19–16WAS
2006 · W6TEN @ WAS25–22TEN
2002 · W5WAS @ TEN31–14WAS
2000 · W9TEN @ WAS27–21TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–WAS
WASQ1 15:00867Field goal0–3
TENQ1 10:08615Punt0–3
WASQ1 6:294-3Turnover0–3
TENQ1 5:1247Field goal3–3
WASQ1 3:41423Punt3–3
TENQ1 1:10627Punt3–3
WASQ2 12:521068Field goal3–6
TENQ2 7:34916Turnover3–6
WASQ2 3:2510Turnover3–6
TENQ2 3:13537Touchdown10–6
WASQ2 1:04629End of half10–6
TENQ3 15:0034Punt10–6
WASQ3 13:15271Touchdown10–13
TENQ3 12:271042Punt10–13
WASQ3 6:06937Punt10–13
WASQ3 0:22415Field goal10–16
TENQ4 13:27975Touchdown17–16
WASQ4 7:413-6Punt17–16
TENQ4 5:32413Punt17–16
WASQ4 3:141151Field goal17–19

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Whitehurst17/2616021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bishop Sankey16563.50
Charlie Whitehurst2105.00
Leon Washington188.00
Jackie Battle231.50
Dexter McCluster1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendall Wright69681
Derek Hagan22451
Delanie Walker25170
Jackie Battle22130
Nate Washington1190
Dexter McCluster1160
Justin Hunter1260
Chase Coffman0100
Bishop Sankey0100
Leon Washington22-40

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins10/1613901
Colt McCoy11/1212810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris18543.00
Roy Helu5295.80
Colt McCoy231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon56871
Niles Paul22580
Jordan Reed56540
DeSean Jackson35490
Andre Roberts24180
Logan Paulsen0100
Roy Helu33-90

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.4%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.27
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.78