2018 · Week 16

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Josh Johnson

16·25

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

TEN -12.5

Total

38

Model margin

+3.8est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapTitans
  • -0.073EPA / play-0.029
  • 42.3%Success rate42.6%
  • -0.059EPA / dropback+0.023
  • -0.096EPA / rush-0.094
  • 8.3%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -3.01CPOE+1.50
  • 36.2%Third-down rate40.0%
  • 51.6%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
  • 1.44Points / drive1.83
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. TEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13TEN @ WAS19–42WAS
2022 · W5TEN @ WAS21–17TEN
2014 · W7TEN @ WAS17–19WAS
2010 · W11WAS @ TEN19–16WAS
2006 · W6TEN @ WAS25–22TEN
2002 · W5WAS @ TEN31–14WAS
2000 · W9TEN @ WAS27–21TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–TEN
WASQ1 15:00735Field goal3–0
TENQ1 12:091164Touchdown3–6
WASQ1 5:3739Punt3–6
TENQ1 3:32618Punt3–6
WASQ1 0:2618108Touchdown10–6
TENQ2 4:281251Field goal10–9
TENQ3 15:00419Punt10–9
WASQ3 13:1133Punt10–9
TENQ3 11:3332Punt10–9
WASQ3 10:151159Field goal13–9
TENQ3 4:57960Field goal13–12
WASQ4 14:551147Field goal16–12
TENQ4 8:09870Touchdown16–19
WASQ4 4:30731Turnover16–19
TENQ4 1:1737Punt16–19
WASQ4 0:1420Opp touchdown16–25

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Johnson13/2315312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson261194.60
Josh Johnson4225.50
Chris Thompson4205.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamison Crowder57780
Josh Doctson36300
Jeremy Sprinkle23220
Adrian Peterson1280
Chris Thompson1180
Michael Floyd1371
Byron Marshall0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota10/1311000
Blaine Gabbert7/1110110
Derrick Henry0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry21844.01
Marcus Mariota177.00
Dion Lewis351.70
Darius Jennings122.00
Corey Davis111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Taywan Taylor33640
Corey Davis35450
MyCole Pruitt23291
Darius Jennings33290
Dion Lewis34200
Anthony Firkser23160
Derrick Henry1180
Luke Stocker0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.57.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.71%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.3%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.02
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.83