2018 · Week 16
Final
Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
TEN -12.5
Total
38
Model margin
+3.8est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play-0.029
- 42.3%Success rate42.6%
- -0.059EPA / dropback+0.023
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.094
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.3%
- -3.01CPOE+1.50
- 36.2%Third-down rate40.0%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
- 1.44Points / drive1.83
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. TEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Johnson | 13/23 | 153 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 26 | 119 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 5 | 7 | 78 | 0 |
| Josh Doctson | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| Byron Marshall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 10/13 | 110 | 0 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 7/11 | 101 | 1 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 21 | 84 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Darius Jennings | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taywan Taylor | 3 | 3 | 64 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 3 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 2 | 3 | 29 | 1 |
| Darius Jennings | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.71%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.11
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.02
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.83