2002 · Week 5
Final
The Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
TEN -3.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.056EPA / play+0.043
- 41.7%Success rate44.9%
- -0.037EPA / dropback+0.151
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.095
- 8.5%Explosive rate6.9%
- 39.7%Third-down rate43.7%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.22Points / drive1.58
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.082EPA / play allowed-0.038
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. TEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ramsey | 20/34 | 268 | 2 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 1/1 | 14 | 1 | 0 |
| Danny Wuerffel | 1/3 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 18 | 90 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Kenny Watson | 8 | 62 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Danny Wuerffel | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Gardner | 5 | 8 | 81 | 1 |
| Kevin Lockett | 4 | 9 | 58 | 1 |
| Jacquez Green | 1 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Chris Doering | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Zeron Flemister | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 1 | 1 | 14 | 1 |
| Kenny Watson | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 24/39 | 245 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 1 |
| John Simon | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Wycheck | 9 | 10 | 79 | 0 |
| Erron Kinney | 2 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Justin McCareins | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 3 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Drew Bennett | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| John Simon | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Eddie George | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.30
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.73