2002 · Week 5

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Danny Wuerffel

31·14

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

The Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

TEN -3.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.7est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapTitans
  • -0.056EPA / play+0.043
  • 41.7%Success rate44.9%
  • -0.037EPA / dropback+0.151
  • -0.083EPA / rush-0.095
  • 8.5%Explosive rate6.9%
  • 39.7%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
  • 1.22Points / drive1.58
  • 3.3%Turnover rate2.3%
  • -0.082EPA / play allowed-0.038

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. TEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13TEN @ WAS19–42WAS
2022 · W5TEN @ WAS21–17TEN
2018 · W16WAS @ TEN16–25TEN
2014 · W7TEN @ WAS17–19WAS
2010 · W11WAS @ TEN19–16WAS
2006 · W6TEN @ WAS25–22TEN
2000 · W9TEN @ WAS27–21TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–TEN
TENQ1 15:0048Punt0–0
WASQ1 12:43638Field goal3–0
TENQ1 9:59857Turnover3–0
WASQ1 5:44715Punt3–0
TENQ1 1:583-1Punt3–0
WASQ1 1:0539Punt3–0
TENQ1 0:2336Punt3–0
WASQ2 13:273-1Punt3–0
TENQ2 12:09558Touchdown3–7
WASQ2 9:1713101Touchdown10–7
TENQ2 2:441076Touchdown10–14
WASQ2 0:37110End of half10–14
WASQ3 15:001356Touchdown17–14
TENQ3 10:22517Turnover17–14
WASQ3 7:23877Touchdown24–14
TENQ3 3:353-2Punt24–14
WASQ3 1:27571Touchdown31–14
TENQ4 14:1857Punt31–14
WASQ4 12:2037Punt31–14
TENQ4 10:4848Turnover31–14
WASQ4 8:46519Punt31–14
TENQ4 5:20955Turnover31–14
WASQ4 2:59441End of half31–14

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Ramsey20/3426820
Kevin Lockett1/11410
Danny Wuerffel1/31100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis18905.01
Kenny Watson8627.80
Danny Wuerffel133.00
Patrick Ramsey210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rod Gardner58811
Kevin Lockett49581
Jacquez Green13440
Chris Doering46340
Zeron Flemister25220
Stephen Davis11141
Kenny Watson23120

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair24/3924513

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George10262.60
Steve McNair3268.71
John Simon273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Frank Wycheck910790
Erron Kinney23430
Justin McCareins36350
Kevin Dyson38330
Drew Bennett25260
John Simon22151
Eddie George34140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.0%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.30
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+3.73