2022 · Week 5
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
TEN -1
Total
43
Model margin
+3.0est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play-0.066
- 41.2%Success rate40.9%
- -0.034EPA / dropback-0.045
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.092
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.0%
- -0.94CPOE-1.41
- 37.1%Third-down rate34.9%
- 67.5%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.46Points / drive1.48
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. WAS are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 15/25 | 181 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 28 | 102 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2 | 3 | 72 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 4 | 5 | 23 | 1 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Kyle Philips | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 25/38 | 359 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dyami Brown | 2 | 4 | 105 | 2 |
| Terry McLaurin | 5 | 6 | 76 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 6 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| John Bates | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 5 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Cole Turner | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.29
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.99