2022 · Week 5

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

21·17

Commanders

Washington

QB Carson Wentz

FedExField · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

TEN -1

Total

43

Model margin

+3.0est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapCommanders
  • -0.066EPA / play-0.066
  • 41.2%Success rate40.9%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback-0.045
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.092
  • 8.9%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -0.94CPOE-1.41
  • 37.1%Third-down rate34.9%
  • 67.5%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 1.46Points / drive1.48
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. WAS are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13TEN @ WAS19–42WAS
2018 · W16WAS @ TEN16–25TEN
2014 · W7TEN @ WAS17–19WAS
2010 · W11WAS @ TEN19–16WAS
2006 · W6TEN @ WAS25–22TEN
2002 · W5WAS @ TEN31–14WAS
2000 · W9TEN @ WAS27–21TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–WAS
TENQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:2436Punt0–0
TENQ1 11:53611Punt0–0
WASQ1 8:2948Punt0–0
TENQ1 6:30652Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 3:58645Field goal7–3
TENQ1 0:263-2Punt7–9
WASQ2 14:06175Touchdown7–10
TENQ2 13:5679Punt7–10
WASQ2 10:00530Punt7–10
TENQ2 7:141576Touchdown14–10
WASQ2 0:1700End of half14–10
WASQ3 15:00440Punt14–10
TENQ3 12:3430Punt14–10
WASQ3 11:0046Turnover on downs14–10
TENQ3 9:283-6Punt14–10
WASQ3 7:50680Touchdown14–17
TENQ3 4:36785Touchdown21–17
WASQ3 1:034-2Punt21–17
TENQ4 13:3570Punt21–17
WASQ4 9:53510Punt21–17
TENQ4 7:08310Punt21–17
WASQ4 4:462088Turnover21–17
TENQ4 0:0612End of half21–17

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill15/2518110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry281023.62
Ryan Tannehill331.00
Dontrell Hilliard100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine23720
Robert Woods48370
Derrick Henry22300
Dontrell Hilliard45231
Austin Hooper1170
Kyle Philips1270
Geoff Swaim1150
Chig Okonkwo0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz25/3835921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Robinson9222.40
Carson Wentz5153.00
Antonio Gibson362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dyami Brown241052
Terry McLaurin56760
Curtis Samuel68620
John Bates33390
J.D. McKissic57370
Antonio Gibson34330
Cam Sims1270
Cole Turner0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.29
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.99