2010 · Week 11

Final / OT

Commanders

Washington

QB Donovan McNabb

19·16

Titans

Tennessee

QB Vince Young

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

TEN -7

Total

44

Model margin

+3.7est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapTitans
  • -0.079EPA / play-0.017
  • 40.8%Success rate40.0%
  • -0.045EPA / dropback+0.083
  • -0.148EPA / rush-0.153
  • 9.3%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -4.10CPOE-0.87
  • 29.2%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 58.6%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.83
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. TEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13TEN @ WAS19–42WAS
2022 · W5TEN @ WAS21–17TEN
2018 · W16WAS @ TEN16–25TEN
2014 · W7TEN @ WAS17–19WAS
2006 · W6TEN @ WAS25–22TEN
2002 · W5WAS @ TEN31–14WAS
2000 · W9TEN @ WAS27–21TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–TEN
WASQ1 15:003-4Punt0–0
TENQ1 13:37217Turnover0–0
WASQ1 12:51730Opp touchdown0–7
WASQ1 8:18879Touchdown7–7
TENQ1 5:0239Punt7–7
WASQ1 2:561581Field goal10–7
TENQ2 10:381488Field goal10–10
WASQ2 3:31428Turnover10–10
TENQ2 1:1039Punt10–10
WASQ2 0:29428Missed field goal10–10
TENQ3 15:001066Field goal10–13
WASQ3 9:10949Field goal13–13
TENQ3 3:55544Punt13–13
WASQ3 1:431046Punt13–13
TENQ4 12:11672Field goal13–16
WASQ4 8:40850Field goal16–16
TENQ4 5:2410Turnover16–16
WASQ4 4:5732Punt16–16
TENQ4 3:57653Punt16–16
WASQ4 1:37644Missed field goal16–16
TENOT415Punt16–16
WASOT1132Field goal19–16

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb30/5037611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Keiland Williams23683.00
Clinton Portis5326.40
Donovan McNabb144.00
Mike Sellers100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santana Moss691061
Chris Cooley79910
Fred Davis24440
Anthony Armstrong37410
Joey Galloway36320
Keiland Williams68270
Brandon Banks11150
Clinton Portis12140
Mike Sellers1260

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vince Young12/1616500
Rusty Smith3/96201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson211306.20
Vince Young3206.70
Javon Ringer111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Washington591170
Bo Scaife46510
Justin Gage11230
Jared Cook22110
Chris Johnson2360
Randy Moss0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

4.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.9%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.88
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.67