2010 · Week 11
Final / OT
LP Field · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
TEN -7
Total
44
Model margin
+3.7est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play-0.017
- 40.8%Success rate40.0%
- -0.045EPA / dropback+0.083
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.153
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.4%
- -4.10CPOE-0.87
- 29.2%Third-down rate34.8%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.31Points / drive1.83
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. TEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 30/50 | 376 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keiland Williams | 23 | 68 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santana Moss | 6 | 9 | 106 | 1 |
| Chris Cooley | 7 | 9 | 91 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 2 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Anthony Armstrong | 3 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 6 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Brandon Banks | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 12/16 | 165 | 0 | 0 |
| Rusty Smith | 3/9 | 62 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 21 | 130 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 5 | 9 | 117 | 0 |
| Bo Scaife | 4 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Justin Gage | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
4.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.88
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.67