2000 · Week 9
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
WAS -4
Total
37.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play-0.027
- 39.2%Success rate41.1%
- +0.085EPA / dropback+0.058
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.148
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.1%
- 42.4%Third-down rate39.0%
- 46.5%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.28Points / drive1.30
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.194EPA / play allowed-0.093
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. WAS are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 13:17 | 16 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| TEN | Q1 4:58 | 10 | 45 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| WAS | Q2 13:07 | 3 | 8 | Opp touchdown | 10–7 |
| TEN | Q2 11:12 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 10–7 |
| WAS | Q2 11:12 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 10–7 |
| TEN | Q2 8:54 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 10–7 |
| WAS | Q2 7:29 | 9 | 19 | — | 10–7 |
| TEN | Q2 3:26 | 6 | 22 | Field goal | 13–7 |
| WAS | Q2 0:58 | 7 | 27 | Opp touchdown | 19–7 |
| TEN | Q2 0:00 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 20–7 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 20–7 |
| TEN | Q3 13:35 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 20–7 |
| WAS | Q3 8:52 | 14 | 54 | Touchdown | 20–14 |
| TEN | Q3 0:57 | 11 | 61 | Touchdown | 27–14 |
| WAS | Q4 10:12 | 11 | 71 | Touchdown | 27–21 |
| TEN | Q4 6:42 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 27–21 |
| WAS | Q4 2:15 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 27–21 |
| TEN | Q4 1:59 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 27–21 |
| WAS | Q4 0:02 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 27–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 14/18 | 96 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 22 | 71 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 5 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 5 | 7 | 28 | 1 |
| Derrick Mason | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Carl Pickens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 21/40 | 202 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 21 | 62 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irving Fryar | 3 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Stephen Alexander | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Albert Connell | 2 | 11 | 33 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Andre Reed | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Stephen Davis | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.8%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.66
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.10