2024 · Week 13
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
WAS -6
Total
45
Model margin
+1.7est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.104EPA / play+0.138
- 40.4%Success rate48.1%
- -0.056EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.175EPA / rush+0.027
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.5%
- +0.11CPOE+4.57
- 38.0%Third-down rate45.9%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
- 1.35Points / drive2.78
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. WAS are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 18/37 | 212 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Will Levis | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 3 | 8 | 61 | 2 |
| Calvin Ridley | 2 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Josh Whyle | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 25/30 | 206 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 16 | 103 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 13 | 94 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Jayden Daniels | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 8 | 8 | 73 | 2 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Dyami Brown | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Luke McCaffrey | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Ben Sinnott | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
3.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.17
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.14
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.74