2024 · Week 13

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Mason Rudolph

19·42

Commanders

Washington

QB Marcus Mariota

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

WAS -6

Total

45

Model margin

+1.7est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapCommanders
  • -0.104EPA / play+0.138
  • 40.4%Success rate48.1%
  • -0.056EPA / dropback+0.211
  • -0.175EPA / rush+0.027
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +0.11CPOE+4.57
  • 38.0%Third-down rate45.9%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
  • 1.35Points / drive2.78
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. WAS are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W5TEN @ WAS21–17TEN
2018 · W16WAS @ TEN16–25TEN
2014 · W7TEN @ WAS17–19WAS
2010 · W11WAS @ TEN19–16WAS
2006 · W6TEN @ WAS25–22TEN
2002 · W5WAS @ TEN31–14WAS
2000 · W9TEN @ WAS27–21TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–WAS
TENQ1 15:003-2Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:08359Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 11:58517Punt0–7
WASQ1 9:001280Touchdown0–14
TENQ1 2:2329Turnover0–14
WASQ1 1:33324Touchdown0–21
TENQ1 0:2400Touchdown0–21
WASQ1 0:191024Touchdown0–28
TENQ2 10:59413Punt0–28
WASQ2 8:511250Missed field goal0–28
TENQ2 1:521079Touchdown7–28
WASQ2 0:2329End of half7–28
WASQ3 15:0048Punt7–28
TENQ3 12:47840Field goal10–28
WASQ3 8:41617Turnover10–28
TENQ3 6:31644Field goal13–28
WASQ3 3:40972Touchdown13–35
TENQ4 14:1530Punt13–35
WASQ4 13:48837Missed field goal13–35
TENQ4 9:16843Touchdown19–35
WASQ4 7:07971Touchdown19–42
TENQ4 3:3152Turnover on downs19–42
WASQ4 2:39313End of half19–42

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Will Levis18/3721220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard8354.40
Tyjae Spears133.00
Will Levis2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine38612
Calvin Ridley27450
Tyler Boyd34370
Tony Pollard46330
Chig Okonkwo36270
Nick Vannett1160
Josh Whyle1330

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jayden Daniels25/3020631

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Robinson161036.41
Chris Rodriguez Jr.13947.21
Jayden Daniels9343.81
Jeremy McNichols6325.30
Dyami Brown144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin88732
Zach Ertz36351
Dyami Brown45350
Noah Brown34270
Olamide Zaccheaus33140
Luke McCaffrey22130
Brian Robinson1160
Ben Sinnott1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

3.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.8%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.17
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.14
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.74