Closing spread
NYJ -4
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.112EPA / play-0.019
- 42.6%Success rate43.0%
- -0.057EPA / dropback+0.057
- -0.242EPA / rush-0.110
- 8.0%Explosive rate6.5%
- +0.25CPOE+2.38
- 33.0%Third-down rate44.6%
- 53.4%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
- 1.48Points / drive1.74
- 3.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. NYJ are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 22/36 | 269 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 15 | 86 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Devale Ellis | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Brian Calhoun | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 16/22 | 189 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Washington | 20 | 129 | 6.5 | 2 |
| Kevan Barlow | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Brad Smith | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.12
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.69