Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
43
Model margin
-1.4est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.148
- 44.6%Success rate34.3%
- +0.132EPA / dropback-0.156
- -0.055EPA / rush-0.134
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.1%
- 40.1%Third-down rate29.8%
- 52.3%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
- 1.88Points / drive0.96
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.9%
- +0.002EPA / play allowed+0.065
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. DET are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 21/26 | 229 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 22 | 112 | 5.1 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 11 | 63 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laveranues Coles | 7 | 8 | 114 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 4 | 5 | 46 | 2 |
| Curtis Martin | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 2 | 4 | 15 | 1 |
| LaMont Jordan | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 2 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 15/30 | 171 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 16 | 93 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Schroeder | 3 | 8 | 57 | 2 |
| Mikhael Ricks | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Germane Crowell | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Az-Zahir Hakim | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Larry Foster | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Scotty Anderson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| John Owens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.2%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.99
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.43