Closing spread
NYJ -2
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play-0.074
- 41.8%Success rate40.5%
- +0.074EPA / dropback-0.051
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.104
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.4%
- -4.76CPOE-3.58
- 38.3%Third-down rate39.3%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
- 1.79Points / drive1.41
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. NYJ are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 24/34 | 293 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Theo Riddick | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 8 | 10 | 116 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 2 | 2 | 65 | 1 |
| Eric Ebron | 3 | 4 | 34 | 1 |
| Ryan Broyles | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 4 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Corey Fuller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 17/33 | 209 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 17 | 84 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 6 | 44 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Salas | 2 | 4 | 60 | 0 |
| Jace Amaro | 5 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 4 | 10 | 48 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 2 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Sudfeld | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.2%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.99
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.42