2014 · Week 4

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

24·17

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 80°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

NYJ -2

Total

43.5

Model margin

+0.4est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapJets
  • -0.006EPA / play-0.074
  • 41.8%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback-0.051
  • -0.159EPA / rush-0.104
  • 8.1%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -4.76CPOE-3.58
  • 38.3%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.41
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. NYJ are 3-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3NYJ @ DET24–31DET
2022 · W15DET @ NYJ20–17DET
2018 · W1NYJ @ DET48–17NYJ
2010 · W9NYJ @ DET23–20NYJ
2006 · W7DET @ NYJ24–31NYJ
2002 · W11NYJ @ DET31–14NYJ
2000 · W16DET @ NYJ10–7DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:001371Field goal0–3
DETQ1 8:36647Field goal3–3
NYJQ1 5:0437Punt3–3
DETQ1 3:34834Punt3–3
NYJQ2 14:0234Punt3–3
DETQ2 12:3930Punt3–3
NYJQ2 10:5939Punt3–3
DETQ2 9:18583Touchdown10–3
NYJQ2 6:1935Punt10–3
DETQ2 4:2935Punt10–3
NYJQ2 2:1542Punt10–3
DETQ2 1:08547Touchdown17–3
NYJQ2 0:22417End of half17–3
DETQ3 15:00510Punt17–3
NYJQ3 12:051274Touchdown17–10
DETQ3 7:261490Touchdown24–10
NYJQ4 14:54639Turnover24–10
DETQ4 13:0430Missed field goal24–10
NYJQ4 11:28320Turnover24–10
DETQ4 10:2934Punt24–10
NYJQ4 9:25780Touchdown24–17
DETQ4 6:5839Punt24–17
NYJQ4 4:3638Punt24–17
DETQ4 3:41434End of half24–17

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford24/3429320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush12463.80
Joique Bell8324.00
Matthew Stafford681.31
Theo Riddick122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate8101160
Jeremy Ross22651
Eric Ebron34341
Ryan Broyles12210
Reggie Bush46190
Brandon Pettigrew22190
Calvin Johnson22120
Joique Bell2470
Corey Fuller0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith17/3320911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory17844.90
Chris Johnson6447.31
Geno Smith441.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Salas24600
Jace Amaro55580
Eric Decker410481
Chris Johnson22170
Chris Ivory26160
David Nelson1170
Jeremy Kerley1330
Jeff Cumberland0100
Zach Sudfeld0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +22.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.2%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.99
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.42