Closing spread
NYJ -6.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.143EPA / play-0.073
- 36.6%Success rate39.6%
- -0.141EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.161
- 6.7%Explosive rate7.5%
- 31.8%Third-down rate37.5%
- 47.8%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.23Points / drive1.29
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.110EPA / play allowed-0.101
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. NYJ are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 8/18 | 110 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 37 | 164 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Mario Bates | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 1 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Germane Crowell | 2 | 8 | 5 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 21/36 | 194 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 16 | 52 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 5 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 4 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Windrell Hayes | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
4.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.47