2000 · Week 16

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Charlie Batch

10·7

Jets

New York

QB Vinny Testaverde

Giants Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

NYJ -6.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapJets
  • -0.143EPA / play-0.073
  • 36.6%Success rate39.6%
  • -0.141EPA / dropback-0.022
  • -0.146EPA / rush-0.161
  • 6.7%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 31.8%Third-down rate37.5%
  • 47.8%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 1.23Points / drive1.29
  • 2.8%Turnover rate3.5%
  • -0.110EPA / play allowed-0.101

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. NYJ are 3-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3NYJ @ DET24–31DET
2022 · W15DET @ NYJ20–17DET
2018 · W1NYJ @ DET48–17NYJ
2014 · W4DET @ NYJ24–17DET
2010 · W9NYJ @ DET23–20NYJ
2006 · W7DET @ NYJ24–31NYJ
2002 · W11NYJ @ DET31–14NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–NYJ
DETQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:5736Punt0–0
DETQ1 11:2850Punt0–0
NYJQ1 8:43425Punt0–0
DETQ1 6:4521Turnover0–6
NYJQ1 5:5311Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 5:491889Turnover on downs0–7
NYJQ2 11:451278Punt0–7
DETQ2 5:5330Punt0–7
NYJQ2 4:25313Punt0–7
DETQ2 2:3037Punt0–7
NYJQ2 0:5935Missed field goal0–7
DETQ2 0:26331End of half0–7
DETQ3 15:00523Punt0–7
NYJQ3 12:35415Punt0–7
DETQ3 10:02655Field goal3–7
NYJQ3 6:41713Punt3–7
DETQ3 3:10519Punt3–7
NYJQ3 0:41619Turnover3–7
DETQ4 13:0448Turnover on downs3–7
NYJQ4 11:1525Turnover3–7
DETQ4 10:32845Touchdown10–7
NYJQ4 5:4338Punt10–7
DETQ4 3:3338Punt10–7
NYJQ4 2:261052Missed field goal10–7
DETQ4 0:0900End of half10–7

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Batch8/1811001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Stewart371644.40
Mario Bates33411.30
Charlie Batch4123.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Stewart12320
Johnnie Morton24310
David Sloan22310
Germane Crowell2850

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vinny Testaverde21/3619401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin16523.31
Vinny Testaverde100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Curtis Martin56570
Wayne Chrebet35430
Dedric Ward48250
Windrell Hayes13220
Anthony Becht1250
Laveranues Coles0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

4.73%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.7%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.47